Denver Summit W vs Bay FC Statistics & Analysis

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Denver Summit W

Sep 17, 2026 - 01:30

2 2.20

2 1.82

xG Accuracy: 90%

Bay FC

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Denver Summit W Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 2-1, 2-2, 1-1, 1-2, 3-1 2-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 11, 2026 · 02:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7990367

Closing Odds 1.52

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Denver Summit W 2–2 Bay FC

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Bay FC (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 11.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Denver Summit W (1X2)	48.3	61.1	-12.8
Draw (1X2)	22.2	20.3	+1.9
Bay FC (1X2)	29.5	18.6	+10.9
Over 2.5 goals	76.5	65.3	+11.2
Under 2.5 goals	23.5	34.7	-11.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 76.5% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 65.3%. The difference — about 11.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Denver Summit W (1X2)	1.51	1.52	+0.3
Draw (1X2)	4.49	4.58	-0.2
Bay FC (1X2)	4.89	5.0	-0.2
Over 2.5 goals	1.43	1.44	+0.2
Under 2.5 goals	2.67	2.71	-0.2

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: NWSL Women
Fixture: Denver Summit W vs Bay FC
Kickoff: 2026-09-17 01:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 48.3% · Draw 22.2% · Away 29.5%
xG (showing): Denver Summit W 2.2 — Bay FC 1.82 (total xG ≈ 4.02)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
Model: 75.4% · Implied: 59.0% · Probability edge: +16.4 pts · Est. EV: +25.9%
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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NWSL Women — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	NJ/NY Gotham FC W	26	16	6	4	54
2	San Diego Wave W	26	15	3	8	48
3	Washington Spirit W	26	14	4	8	46
4	Angel City W	26	12	6	8	42
5	Utah Royals W	25	13	3	9	42
6	Portland Thorns W	25	12	6	7	42
7	Kansas City W	26	12	5	9	41
8	Seattle Reign FC	26	12	4	10	40
9	North Carolina Courage W	25	12	3	10	39
10	Denver Summit W	26	9	8	9	35
11	Orlando Pride W	25	9	3	13	30
12	Houston Dash W	25	8	5	12	29
13	Bay FC	25	7	5	13	26
14	Boston Legacy W	26	7	5	14	26
15	Racing Louisville W	26	7	2	17	23
16	Chicago Red Stars W	26	5	2	19	17

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	North Carolina Courage W	25	48	37	+11	39
2	Angel City W	26	44	28	+16	42
3	Kansas City W	26	43	37	+6	41
4	Portland Thorns W	25	42	34	+8	42
5	Denver Summit W	26	42	37	+5	35
6	Utah Royals W	25	41	33	+8	42
7	San Diego Wave W	26	38	27	+11	48
8	Washington Spirit W	26	36	24	+12	46
9	Racing Louisville W	26	35	51	-16	23
10	NJ/NY Gotham FC W	26	34	20	+14	54
11	Seattle Reign FC	26	33	31	+2	40
12	Orlando Pride W	25	32	40	-8	30
13	Boston Legacy W	26	32	44	-12	26
14	Houston Dash W	25	31	35	-4	29
15	Bay FC	25	26	34	-8	26
16	Chicago Red Stars W	26	15	60	-45	17

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	San Diego Wave W	26	7.6	4.5	+3.1	48
2	Denver Summit W	26	3.9	1.9	+2.0	35
3	Bay FC	25	3.1	1.4	+1.7	26
4	Orlando Pride W	25	4.6	3.5	+1.1	30
5	North Carolina Courage W	25	2.3	1.2	+1.1	39
6	Boston Legacy W	26	3.9	2.9	+1.0	26
7	Seattle Reign FC	26	3.2	2.3	+0.9	40
8	Utah Royals W	25	1.5	1.9	-0.4	42
9	Kansas City W	26	3.7	4.2	-0.5	41
10	Washington Spirit W	26	1.2	2.3	-1.1	46
11	Angel City W	26	1.7	3.0	-1.3	42
12	Portland Thorns W	25	3.0	4.5	-1.5	42
13	Racing Louisville W	26	1.4	3.1	-1.7	23
14	Houston Dash W	25	1.9	3.9	-2.0	29
15	Chicago Red Stars W	26	1.2	3.5	-2.3	17
16	NJ/NY Gotham FC W	26	—	—	—	54