Statistics / Football / USA. NWSL Women / Denver Summit W vs NJ/NY Gotham FC W

Denver Summit W vs NJ/NY Gotham FC W Statistics & Analysis

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Denver Summit W
Sep 06, 2026 - 18:00
3 1.87
0 2.15
xG Accuracy: 41%
NJ/NY Gotham FC W NJ/NY Gotham FC W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 NJ/NY Gotham FC W Denver Summit W ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-2, 2-2, 1-1, 2-1, 1-3 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 08:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6371429

Closing Odds 2.44
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Denver Summit W win · Denver Summit W 3–0 NJ/NY Gotham FC W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.16 percentage points on Over 2.5 goals between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 24.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Denver Summit W (1X2) 33.7 34.9 -1.2
Draw (1X2) 23.0 27.1 -4.0
NJ/NY Gotham FC W (1X2) 43.3 38.0 +5.2
Over 2.5 goals 76.5 52.2 +24.3
Under 2.5 goals 23.5 47.8 -24.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 76.5% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 52.2%. The difference — about 24.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Denver Summit W (1X2) 2.64 2.66 +0.2
Draw (1X2) 3.34 3.43 -0.4
NJ/NY Gotham FC W (1X2) 2.42 2.44 +0.2
Over 2.5 goals 1.85 1.83 +1.2
Under 2.5 goals 1.93 2.0 -1.2

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: NWSL Women
  • Fixture: Denver Summit W vs NJ/NY Gotham FC W
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.7% · Draw 23.0% · Away 43.3%
  • xG (showing): Denver Summit W 1.87 — NJ/NY Gotham FC W 2.15 (total xG ≈ 4.02)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 76.5% · Implied: 51.3% · Probability edge: +25.2 pts · Est. EV: +41.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 75.7% · No 24.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (7.8%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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NWSL Women NWSL Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 NJ/NY Gotham FC W 26 16 6 4 54
2 San Diego Wave W 26 15 3 8 48
3 Washington Spirit W 26 14 4 8 46
4 Angel City W 26 12 6 8 42
5 Utah Royals W 25 13 3 9 42
6 Portland Thorns W 25 12 6 7 42
7 Kansas City W 26 12 5 9 41
8 Seattle Reign FC 26 12 4 10 40
9 North Carolina Courage W 25 12 3 10 39
10 Denver Summit W 26 9 8 9 35
11 Orlando Pride W 25 9 3 13 30
12 Houston Dash W 25 8 5 12 29
13 Bay FC 25 7 5 13 26
14 Boston Legacy W 26 7 5 14 26
15 Racing Louisville W 26 7 2 17 23
16 Chicago Red Stars W 26 5 2 19 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 North Carolina Courage W 25 48 37 +11 39
2 Angel City W 26 44 28 +16 42
3 Kansas City W 26 43 37 +6 41
4 Portland Thorns W 25 42 34 +8 42
5 Denver Summit W 26 42 37 +5 35
6 Utah Royals W 25 41 33 +8 42
7 San Diego Wave W 26 38 27 +11 48
8 Washington Spirit W 26 36 24 +12 46
9 Racing Louisville W 26 35 51 -16 23
10 NJ/NY Gotham FC W 26 34 20 +14 54
11 Seattle Reign FC 26 33 31 +2 40
12 Orlando Pride W 25 32 40 -8 30
13 Boston Legacy W 26 32 44 -12 26
14 Houston Dash W 25 31 35 -4 29
15 Bay FC 25 26 34 -8 26
16 Chicago Red Stars W 26 15 60 -45 17
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 San Diego Wave W 26 7.6 4.5 +3.1 48
2 Denver Summit W 26 3.9 1.9 +2.0 35
3 Bay FC 25 3.1 1.4 +1.7 26
4 Orlando Pride W 25 4.6 3.5 +1.1 30
5 North Carolina Courage W 25 2.3 1.2 +1.1 39
6 Boston Legacy W 26 3.9 2.9 +1.0 26
7 Seattle Reign FC 26 3.2 2.3 +0.9 40
8 Utah Royals W 25 1.5 1.9 -0.4 42
9 Kansas City W 26 3.7 4.2 -0.5 41
10 Washington Spirit W 26 1.2 2.3 -1.1 46
11 Angel City W 26 1.7 3.0 -1.3 42
12 Portland Thorns W 25 3.0 4.5 -1.5 42
13 Racing Louisville W 26 1.4 3.1 -1.7 23
14 Houston Dash W 25 1.9 3.9 -2.0 29
15 Chicago Red Stars W 26 1.2 3.5 -2.3 17
16 NJ/NY Gotham FC W 26 — — — 54
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