San Diego Wave W vs Denver Summit W Statistics & Analysis

San Diego Wave W

Aug 15, 2026 - 02:00

1 2.22

1 2.09

xG Accuracy: 53%

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Denver Summit W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 San Diego Wave W Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 2-2, 2-1, 1-2, 1-1, 3-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 00:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3334340

Closing Odds 3.56

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · San Diego Wave W 1–1 Denver Summit W

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Denver Summit W (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 23.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
San Diego Wave W (1X2)	43.0	50.5	-7.6
Draw (1X2)	22.1	23.9	-1.8
Denver Summit W (1X2)	35.0	25.6	+9.4
Over 2.5 goals	80.4	57.4	+23.0
Under 2.5 goals	19.6	42.6	-23.0

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 80.4% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 57.4%. The difference — about 23.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
San Diego Wave W (1X2)	1.8	1.8
Draw (1X2)	3.81	3.81
Denver Summit W (1X2)	3.56	3.56
Over 2.5 goals	1.63	1.63
Under 2.5 goals	2.2	2.2

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: NWSL Women
Fixture: San Diego Wave W vs Denver Summit W
Kickoff: 2026-08-15 02:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 43.0% · Draw 22.1% · Away 35.0%
xG (showing): San Diego Wave W 2.22 — Denver Summit W 2.09 (total xG ≈ 4.31)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 80.4% · Implied: 56.8% · Probability edge: +23.6 pts · Est. EV: +32.7%
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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NWSL Women — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	NJ/NY Gotham FC W	26	16	6	4	54
2	San Diego Wave W	26	15	3	8	48
3	Washington Spirit W	26	14	4	8	46
4	Angel City W	26	12	6	8	42
5	Utah Royals W	25	13	3	9	42
6	Portland Thorns W	25	12	6	7	42
7	Kansas City W	26	12	5	9	41
8	Seattle Reign FC	26	12	4	10	40
9	North Carolina Courage W	25	12	3	10	39
10	Denver Summit W	26	9	8	9	35
11	Orlando Pride W	25	9	3	13	30
12	Houston Dash W	25	8	5	12	29
13	Bay FC	25	7	5	13	26
14	Boston Legacy W	26	7	5	14	26
15	Racing Louisville W	26	7	2	17	23
16	Chicago Red Stars W	26	5	2	19	17

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	North Carolina Courage W	25	48	37	+11	39
2	Angel City W	26	44	28	+16	42
3	Kansas City W	26	43	37	+6	41
4	Portland Thorns W	25	42	34	+8	42
5	Denver Summit W	26	42	37	+5	35
6	Utah Royals W	25	41	33	+8	42
7	San Diego Wave W	26	38	27	+11	48
8	Washington Spirit W	26	36	24	+12	46
9	Racing Louisville W	26	35	51	-16	23
10	NJ/NY Gotham FC W	26	34	20	+14	54
11	Seattle Reign FC	26	33	31	+2	40
12	Orlando Pride W	25	32	40	-8	30
13	Boston Legacy W	26	32	44	-12	26
14	Houston Dash W	25	31	35	-4	29
15	Bay FC	25	26	34	-8	26
16	Chicago Red Stars W	26	15	60	-45	17

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	San Diego Wave W	26	7.6	4.5	+3.1	48
2	Denver Summit W	26	3.9	1.9	+2.0	35
3	Bay FC	25	3.1	1.4	+1.7	26
4	Orlando Pride W	25	4.6	3.5	+1.1	30
5	North Carolina Courage W	25	2.3	1.2	+1.1	39
6	Boston Legacy W	26	3.9	2.9	+1.0	26
7	Seattle Reign FC	26	3.2	2.3	+0.9	40
8	Utah Royals W	25	1.5	1.9	-0.4	42
9	Kansas City W	26	3.7	4.2	-0.5	41
10	Washington Spirit W	26	1.2	2.3	-1.1	46
11	Angel City W	26	1.7	3.0	-1.3	42
12	Portland Thorns W	25	3.0	4.5	-1.5	42
13	Racing Louisville W	26	1.4	3.1	-1.7	23
14	Houston Dash W	25	1.9	3.9	-2.0	29
15	Chicago Red Stars W	26	1.2	3.5	-2.3	17
16	NJ/NY Gotham FC W	26	—	—	—	54