Statistics / Football / USA. NWSL Women / Chicago Red Stars W vs Bay FC

Chicago Red Stars W vs Bay FC Statistics & Analysis

Chicago Red Stars W Chicago Red Stars W
Aug 09, 2026 - 23:00
0 2.29
0 2.02
xG Accuracy: 31%
Bay FC Bay FC
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Chicago Red Stars W Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-2, 2-1, 1-2, 1-1, 3-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 01:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2969896

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Chicago Red Stars W 0–0 Bay FC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: NWSL Women
  • Fixture: Chicago Red Stars W vs Bay FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-09 23:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 44.3% · Draw 21.4% · Away 34.4%
  • xG (showing): Chicago Red Stars W 2.29 — Bay FC 2.02 (total xG ≈ 4.31)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 80.4% · Implied: 59.1% · Probability edge: +21.3 pts · Est. EV: +30.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 78.8% · No 21.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-2 (7.2%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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NWSL Women NWSL Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 NJ/NY Gotham FC W 24 14 6 4 48
2 Washington Spirit W 24 13 4 7 43
3 Utah Royals W 24 13 3 8 42
4 San Diego Wave W 24 13 3 8 42
5 North Carolina Courage W 24 12 3 9 39
6 Kansas City W 24 11 5 8 38
7 Portland Thorns W 23 11 5 7 38
8 Seattle Reign FC 23 11 4 8 37
9 Angel City W 23 9 6 8 33
10 Denver Summit W 23 8 7 8 31
11 Orlando Pride W 24 9 3 12 30
12 Houston Dash W 24 7 5 12 26
13 Boston Legacy W 24 7 5 12 26
14 Racing Louisville W 24 7 2 15 23
15 Bay FC 23 6 4 13 22
16 Chicago Red Stars W 23 5 1 17 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 North Carolina Courage W 24 47 35 +12 39
2 Utah Royals W 24 41 30 +11 42
3 Kansas City W 24 39 34 +5 38
4 Angel City W 23 37 27 +10 33
5 Denver Summit W 23 37 30 +7 31
6 Portland Thorns W 23 37 32 +5 38
7 Racing Louisville W 24 35 47 -12 23
8 San Diego Wave W 24 34 27 +7 42
9 Washington Spirit W 24 33 23 +10 43
10 Orlando Pride W 24 31 36 -5 30
11 Boston Legacy W 24 31 40 -9 26
12 NJ/NY Gotham FC W 24 29 18 +11 48
13 Seattle Reign FC 23 29 26 +3 37
14 Houston Dash W 24 29 34 -5 26
15 Bay FC 23 22 32 -10 22
16 Chicago Red Stars W 23 13 53 -40 16
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 San Diego Wave W 24 7.6 4.5 +3.1 42
2 Denver Summit W 23 3.9 1.9 +2.0 31
3 Bay FC 23 3.1 1.4 +1.7 22
4 Orlando Pride W 24 4.6 3.5 +1.1 30
5 North Carolina Courage W 24 2.3 1.2 +1.1 39
6 Boston Legacy W 24 3.9 2.9 +1.0 26
7 Seattle Reign FC 23 3.2 2.3 +0.9 37
8 Utah Royals W 24 1.5 1.9 -0.4 42
9 Kansas City W 24 3.7 4.2 -0.5 38
10 Washington Spirit W 24 1.2 2.3 -1.1 43
11 Angel City W 23 1.7 3.0 -1.3 33
12 Portland Thorns W 23 3.0 4.5 -1.5 38
13 Racing Louisville W 24 1.4 3.1 -1.7 23
14 Houston Dash W 24 1.9 3.9 -2.0 26
15 Chicago Red Stars W 23 1.2 3.5 -2.3 16
16 NJ/NY Gotham FC W 24 — — — 48
NWSL Women USA. NWSL Women Predictions