Statistics / Football / USA. NWSL Women / Orlando Pride W vs Racing Louisville W

Orlando Pride W vs Racing Louisville W Statistics & Analysis

Orlando Pride W Orlando Pride W
Aug 07, 2026 - 23:00
1 2.26
3 2.05
xG Accuracy: 54%
Racing Louisville W Racing Louisville W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Orlando Pride W Racing Louisville W ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-2, 2-1, 1-2, 1-1, 3-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 01, 2026 · 02:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2683700

Closing Odds 3.98
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Racing Louisville W win · Orlando Pride W 1–3 Racing Louisville W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Racing Louisville W (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 24.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Orlando Pride W (1X2) 43.3 53.6 -10.3
Draw (1X2) 21.4 23.4 -2.0
Racing Louisville W (1X2) 35.3 23.0 +12.3
Over 2.5 goals 80.4 55.5 +24.9
Under 2.5 goals 19.6 44.5 -24.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 80.4% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 55.5%. The difference — about 24.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Orlando Pride W (1X2) 1.71 1.71 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.91 3.91 0.0
Racing Louisville W (1X2) 3.98 3.98 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.69 1.69 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.11 2.11 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: NWSL Women
  • Fixture: Orlando Pride W vs Racing Louisville W
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-07 23:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 43.3% · Draw 21.4% · Away 35.3%
  • xG (showing): Orlando Pride W 2.26 — Racing Louisville W 2.05 (total xG ≈ 4.31)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 80.4% · Implied: 55.8% · Probability edge: +24.6 pts · Est. EV: +40.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 78.8% · No 21.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-2 (7.2%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
NWSL Women NWSL Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 NJ/NY Gotham FC W 26 16 6 4 54
2 San Diego Wave W 26 15 3 8 48
3 Washington Spirit W 26 14 4 8 46
4 Angel City W 26 12 6 8 42
5 Utah Royals W 25 13 3 9 42
6 Portland Thorns W 25 12 6 7 42
7 Kansas City W 26 12 5 9 41
8 Seattle Reign FC 26 12 4 10 40
9 North Carolina Courage W 25 12 3 10 39
10 Denver Summit W 26 9 8 9 35
11 Orlando Pride W 25 9 3 13 30
12 Houston Dash W 25 8 5 12 29
13 Bay FC 25 7 5 13 26
14 Boston Legacy W 26 7 5 14 26
15 Racing Louisville W 26 7 2 17 23
16 Chicago Red Stars W 26 5 2 19 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 North Carolina Courage W 25 48 37 +11 39
2 Angel City W 26 44 28 +16 42
3 Kansas City W 26 43 37 +6 41
4 Portland Thorns W 25 42 34 +8 42
5 Denver Summit W 26 42 37 +5 35
6 Utah Royals W 25 41 33 +8 42
7 San Diego Wave W 26 38 27 +11 48
8 Washington Spirit W 26 36 24 +12 46
9 Racing Louisville W 26 35 51 -16 23
10 NJ/NY Gotham FC W 26 34 20 +14 54
11 Seattle Reign FC 26 33 31 +2 40
12 Orlando Pride W 25 32 40 -8 30
13 Boston Legacy W 26 32 44 -12 26
14 Houston Dash W 25 31 35 -4 29
15 Bay FC 25 26 34 -8 26
16 Chicago Red Stars W 26 15 60 -45 17
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 San Diego Wave W 26 7.6 4.5 +3.1 48
2 Denver Summit W 26 3.9 1.9 +2.0 35
3 Bay FC 25 3.1 1.4 +1.7 26
4 Orlando Pride W 25 4.6 3.5 +1.1 30
5 North Carolina Courage W 25 2.3 1.2 +1.1 39
6 Boston Legacy W 26 3.9 2.9 +1.0 26
7 Seattle Reign FC 26 3.2 2.3 +0.9 40
8 Utah Royals W 25 1.5 1.9 -0.4 42
9 Kansas City W 26 3.7 4.2 -0.5 41
10 Washington Spirit W 26 1.2 2.3 -1.1 46
11 Angel City W 26 1.7 3.0 -1.3 42
12 Portland Thorns W 25 3.0 4.5 -1.5 42
13 Racing Louisville W 26 1.4 3.1 -1.7 23
14 Houston Dash W 25 1.9 3.9 -2.0 29
15 Chicago Red Stars W 26 1.2 3.5 -2.3 17
16 NJ/NY Gotham FC W 26 — — — 54
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