Utah Royals W vs Portland Thorns W Statistics & Analysis

Utah Royals W

Aug 02, 2026 - 23:00

5 2.19

1 2.12

xG Accuracy: 34%

Portland Thorns W

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Utah Royals W Utah Royals W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 2-2, 2-1, 1-2, 1-1, 3-2 5-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 02:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1957271

Closing Odds 2.96

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Utah Royals W win · Utah Royals W 5–1 Portland Thorns W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Portland Thorns W (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 19.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Utah Royals W (1X2)	40.5	44.9	-4.4
Draw (1X2)	21.5	24.9	-3.4
Portland Thorns W (1X2)	38.0	30.2	+7.8
Over 2.5 goals	80.4	61.1	+19.3
Under 2.5 goals	19.6	38.9	-19.3

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 80.4% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 61.1%. The difference — about 19.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Utah Royals W (1X2)	1.99	1.99
Draw (1X2)	3.58	3.58
Portland Thorns W (1X2)	2.96	2.96
Over 2.5 goals	1.5	1.5
Under 2.5 goals	2.36	2.36

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: NWSL Women
Fixture: Utah Royals W vs Portland Thorns W
Kickoff: 2026-08-02 23:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 21.5% · Away 38.0%
xG (showing): Utah Royals W 2.19 — Portland Thorns W 2.12 (total xG ≈ 4.31)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 80.4% · Implied: 60.4% · Probability edge: +20.0 pts · Est. EV: +23.0%
BTTS (model): Yes 79.0% · No 21.0%
Correct score (top bin): 2-2 (7.2%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Utah Royals W & Portland Thorns W!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics

NWSL Women — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	NJ/NY Gotham FC W	26	16	6	4	54
2	San Diego Wave W	26	15	3	8	48
3	Washington Spirit W	26	14	4	8	46
4	Angel City W	26	12	6	8	42
5	Utah Royals W	25	13	3	9	42
6	Portland Thorns W	25	12	6	7	42
7	Kansas City W	26	12	5	9	41
8	Seattle Reign FC	26	12	4	10	40
9	North Carolina Courage W	25	12	3	10	39
10	Denver Summit W	26	9	8	9	35
11	Orlando Pride W	25	9	3	13	30
12	Houston Dash W	25	8	5	12	29
13	Bay FC	25	7	5	13	26
14	Boston Legacy W	26	7	5	14	26
15	Racing Louisville W	26	7	2	17	23
16	Chicago Red Stars W	26	5	2	19	17

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	North Carolina Courage W	25	48	37	+11	39
2	Angel City W	26	44	28	+16	42
3	Kansas City W	26	43	37	+6	41
4	Portland Thorns W	25	42	34	+8	42
5	Denver Summit W	26	42	37	+5	35
6	Utah Royals W	25	41	33	+8	42
7	San Diego Wave W	26	38	27	+11	48
8	Washington Spirit W	26	36	24	+12	46
9	Racing Louisville W	26	35	51	-16	23
10	NJ/NY Gotham FC W	26	34	20	+14	54
11	Seattle Reign FC	26	33	31	+2	40
12	Orlando Pride W	25	32	40	-8	30
13	Boston Legacy W	26	32	44	-12	26
14	Houston Dash W	25	31	35	-4	29
15	Bay FC	25	26	34	-8	26
16	Chicago Red Stars W	26	15	60	-45	17

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	San Diego Wave W	26	7.6	4.5	+3.1	48
2	Denver Summit W	26	3.9	1.9	+2.0	35
3	Bay FC	25	3.1	1.4	+1.7	26
4	Orlando Pride W	25	4.6	3.5	+1.1	30
5	North Carolina Courage W	25	2.3	1.2	+1.1	39
6	Boston Legacy W	26	3.9	2.9	+1.0	26
7	Seattle Reign FC	26	3.2	2.3	+0.9	40
8	Utah Royals W	25	1.5	1.9	-0.4	42
9	Kansas City W	26	3.7	4.2	-0.5	41
10	Washington Spirit W	26	1.2	2.3	-1.1	46
11	Angel City W	26	1.7	3.0	-1.3	42
12	Portland Thorns W	25	3.0	4.5	-1.5	42
13	Racing Louisville W	26	1.4	3.1	-1.7	23
14	Houston Dash W	25	1.9	3.9	-2.0	29
15	Chicago Red Stars W	26	1.2	3.5	-2.3	17
16	NJ/NY Gotham FC W	26	—	—	—	54