Bay FC vs NJ/NY Gotham FC W Statistics & Analysis

Bay FC

Jul 30, 2026 - 02:00

0 1.92

1 2.39

xG Accuracy: 40%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 NJ/NY Gotham FC W NJ/NY Gotham FC W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-2, 2-2, 1-1, 2-1, 1-3 0-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 01:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1523504

Closing Odds 4.06

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result NJ/NY Gotham FC W win · Bay FC 0–1 NJ/NY Gotham FC W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Bay FC (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 24.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Bay FC (1X2)	29.4	22.5	+6.9
Draw (1X2)	21.5	23.7	-2.2
NJ/NY Gotham FC W (1X2)	49.0	53.8	-4.7
Over 2.5 goals	80.4	56.3	+24.1
Under 2.5 goals	19.6	43.7	-24.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 80.4% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 56.3%. The difference — about 24.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Bay FC (1X2)	4.06	4.06
Draw (1X2)	3.86	3.86
NJ/NY Gotham FC W (1X2)	1.7	1.7
Over 2.5 goals	1.67	1.67
Under 2.5 goals	2.15	2.15

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: NWSL Women
Fixture: Bay FC vs NJ/NY Gotham FC W
Kickoff: 2026-07-30 02:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 29.4% · Draw 21.5% · Away 49.0%
xG (showing): Bay FC 1.92 — NJ/NY Gotham FC W 2.39 (total xG ≈ 4.31)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 80.4% · Implied: 56.0% · Probability edge: +24.4 pts · Est. EV: +34.3%
BTTS (model): Yes 78.3% · No 21.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (7.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

NWSL Women — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	NJ/NY Gotham FC W	26	16	6	4	54
2	San Diego Wave W	26	15	3	8	48
3	Washington Spirit W	26	14	4	8	46
4	Angel City W	26	12	6	8	42
5	Utah Royals W	25	13	3	9	42
6	Portland Thorns W	25	12	6	7	42
7	Kansas City W	26	12	5	9	41
8	Seattle Reign FC	26	12	4	10	40
9	North Carolina Courage W	25	12	3	10	39
10	Denver Summit W	26	9	8	9	35
11	Orlando Pride W	25	9	3	13	30
12	Houston Dash W	25	8	5	12	29
13	Bay FC	25	7	5	13	26
14	Boston Legacy W	26	7	5	14	26
15	Racing Louisville W	26	7	2	17	23
16	Chicago Red Stars W	26	5	2	19	17

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	North Carolina Courage W	25	48	37	+11	39
2	Angel City W	26	44	28	+16	42
3	Kansas City W	26	43	37	+6	41
4	Portland Thorns W	25	42	34	+8	42
5	Denver Summit W	26	42	37	+5	35
6	Utah Royals W	25	41	33	+8	42
7	San Diego Wave W	26	38	27	+11	48
8	Washington Spirit W	26	36	24	+12	46
9	Racing Louisville W	26	35	51	-16	23
10	NJ/NY Gotham FC W	26	34	20	+14	54
11	Seattle Reign FC	26	33	31	+2	40
12	Orlando Pride W	25	32	40	-8	30
13	Boston Legacy W	26	32	44	-12	26
14	Houston Dash W	25	31	35	-4	29
15	Bay FC	25	26	34	-8	26
16	Chicago Red Stars W	26	15	60	-45	17

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	San Diego Wave W	26	7.6	4.5	+3.1	48
2	Denver Summit W	26	3.9	1.9	+2.0	35
3	Bay FC	25	3.1	1.4	+1.7	26
4	Orlando Pride W	25	4.6	3.5	+1.1	30
5	North Carolina Courage W	25	2.3	1.2	+1.1	39
6	Boston Legacy W	26	3.9	2.9	+1.0	26
7	Seattle Reign FC	26	3.2	2.3	+0.9	40
8	Utah Royals W	25	1.5	1.9	-0.4	42
9	Kansas City W	26	3.7	4.2	-0.5	41
10	Washington Spirit W	26	1.2	2.3	-1.1	46
11	Angel City W	26	1.7	3.0	-1.3	42
12	Portland Thorns W	25	3.0	4.5	-1.5	42
13	Racing Louisville W	26	1.4	3.1	-1.7	23
14	Houston Dash W	25	1.9	3.9	-2.0	29
15	Chicago Red Stars W	26	1.2	3.5	-2.3	17
16	NJ/NY Gotham FC W	26	—	—	—	54