Statistics / Football / Rwanda. National Soccer League / Rayon Sports vs Gorilla

Rayon Sports vs Gorilla Statistics & Analysis

Rayon Sports Rayon Sports
May 15, 2026 - 16:30
0 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 82%
Gorilla Gorilla
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Rayon Sports Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 0-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 13:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5224014

Closing Odds 1.44
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Rayon Sports 0–0 Gorilla
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Gorilla (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Gorilla (1X2) by about 18.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Rayon Sports (1X2) 41.8 61.7 -19.9
Draw (1X2) 25.7 24.3 +1.4
Gorilla (1X2) 32.6 14.0 +18.6
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 45.8 +4.8
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 54.2 -4.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.6% on Gorilla (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 14.0%. The difference — about 18.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Rayon Sports (1X2) 1.44 1.44 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.66 3.66 0.0
Gorilla (1X2) 6.35 6.35 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.01 2.01 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.7 1.7 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: National Soccer League
  • Fixture: Rayon Sports vs Gorilla
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-15 16:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Rayon Sports 1.45 — Gorilla 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 65.0% · Over 2.5 35.0%); BTTS Yes (Yes 50.3% · No 49.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 50.3% · No 49.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (14.7%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
National Soccer League National Soccer League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Al Hilal Omdurman 34 23 6 5 75
2 APR 34 19 11 4 68
3 Al Merreikh 34 16 11 7 59
4 Rayon Sports 34 14 14 6 56
5 Kiyovu Sports 34 13 14 7 53
6 Police 34 12 16 6 52
7 Mukura 34 12 11 11 47
8 Marines 34 12 9 13 45
9 Bugesera 34 12 8 14 44
10 Musanze 34 11 10 13 43
11 Gorilla 34 10 10 14 40
12 Gicumbi 34 10 8 16 38
13 Etincelles 34 7 16 11 37
14 AS Kigali 34 8 11 15 35
15 Gasogi United 34 8 11 15 35
16 Amagaju 34 9 8 17 35
17 Muhanga 34 8 7 19 31
18 Rutsiro 34 6 11 17 29
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Al Hilal Omdurman 34 74 25 +49 75
2 APR 34 50 28 +22 68
3 Marines 34 47 43 +4 45
4 Al Merreikh 34 41 24 +17 59
5 Rayon Sports 34 40 30 +10 56
6 Musanze 34 38 37 +1 43
7 Gicumbi 34 38 54 -16 38
8 Mukura 34 36 38 -2 47
9 Kiyovu Sports 34 34 21 +13 53
10 Bugesera 34 34 39 -5 44
11 Etincelles 34 32 40 -8 37
12 Gorilla 34 31 42 -11 40
13 Rutsiro 34 30 47 -17 29
14 Police 34 29 19 +10 52
15 Gasogi United 34 29 44 -15 35
16 AS Kigali 34 27 39 -12 35
17 Muhanga 34 25 46 -21 31
18 Amagaju 34 19 38 -19 35