Statistics / Football / Rwanda. National Soccer League / Amagaju vs Kiyovu Sports

Amagaju vs Kiyovu Sports Statistics & Analysis

Amagaju Amagaju
May 05, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 63%
Kiyovu Sports Kiyovu Sports
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Amagaju Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-2 0-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 16:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1475420

Closing Odds 1.49
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Amagaju 0–0 Kiyovu Sports
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Kiyovu Sports (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Kiyovu Sports (1X2) by about 13.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Amagaju (1X2) 41.8 60.3 -18.5
Draw (1X2) 25.7 20.6 +5.1
Kiyovu Sports (1X2) 32.6 19.1 +13.4
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 53.1 -2.5
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 46.9 +2.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.6% on Kiyovu Sports (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 19.1%. The difference — about 13.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Amagaju (1X2) 1.49 1.49 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.36 4.36 0.0
Kiyovu Sports (1X2) 4.69 4.69 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.75 1.75 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.98 1.98 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: National Soccer League
  • Fixture: Amagaju vs Kiyovu Sports
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-05 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Amagaju 1.45 — Kiyovu Sports 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 74.4% · Over 2.5 25.6%); BTTS No (Yes 22.8% · No 77.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 22.8% · No 77.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (19.1%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
National Soccer League National Soccer League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Al Hilal Omdurman 34 23 6 5 75
2 APR 34 19 11 4 68
3 Al Merreikh 34 16 11 7 59
4 Rayon Sports 34 14 14 6 56
5 Kiyovu Sports 34 13 14 7 53
6 Police 34 12 16 6 52
7 Mukura 34 12 11 11 47
8 Marines 34 12 9 13 45
9 Bugesera 34 12 8 14 44
10 Musanze 34 11 10 13 43
11 Gorilla 34 10 10 14 40
12 Gicumbi 34 10 8 16 38
13 Etincelles 34 7 16 11 37
14 AS Kigali 34 8 11 15 35
15 Gasogi United 34 8 11 15 35
16 Amagaju 34 9 8 17 35
17 Muhanga 34 8 7 19 31
18 Rutsiro 34 6 11 17 29
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Al Hilal Omdurman 34 74 25 +49 75
2 APR 34 50 28 +22 68
3 Marines 34 47 43 +4 45
4 Al Merreikh 34 41 24 +17 59
5 Rayon Sports 34 40 30 +10 56
6 Musanze 34 38 37 +1 43
7 Gicumbi 34 38 54 -16 38
8 Mukura 34 36 38 -2 47
9 Kiyovu Sports 34 34 21 +13 53
10 Bugesera 34 34 39 -5 44
11 Etincelles 34 32 40 -8 37
12 Gorilla 34 31 42 -11 40
13 Rutsiro 34 30 47 -17 29
14 Police 34 29 19 +10 52
15 Gasogi United 34 29 44 -15 35
16 AS Kigali 34 27 39 -12 35
17 Muhanga 34 25 46 -21 31
18 Amagaju 34 19 38 -19 35