Statistics / Football / Georgia. Liga 3 / Varketili vs Dinamo Tbilisi II

Varketili vs Dinamo Tbilisi II Statistics & Analysis

Varketili Varketili
Oct 09, 2026 - 17:00
3 1.39
0 1.21
xG Accuracy: 46%
Dinamo Tbilisi II Dinamo Tbilisi II
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Varketili Varketili ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 03, 2026 · 01:47 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12692324

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Varketili win · Varketili 3–0 Dinamo Tbilisi II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga 3
  • Fixture: Varketili vs Dinamo Tbilisi II
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-09 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
  • xG (showing): Varketili 1.39 — Dinamo Tbilisi II 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Liga 3 Liga 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Guria 23 17 3 3 54
2 Varketili 23 15 7 1 52
3 Saburtalo II 23 11 9 3 42
4 Merani Tbilisi 23 11 7 5 40
5 WIT Georgia 23 11 5 7 38
6 Gonio 23 11 5 7 38
7 Irao 23 10 5 8 35
8 Didube 2014 23 9 7 7 34
9 Dinamo Tbilisi II 23 9 5 9 32
10 Lokomotivi Tbilisi 23 8 7 8 31
11 Margveti 2006 23 9 3 11 30
12 Kolkheti Khobi 23 7 3 13 24
13 Gardabani 23 4 4 15 16
14 Betlemi 23 4 4 15 16
15 Iveria Khashuri 23 1 11 11 14
16 Iberia 2010 23 2 5 16 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Guria 23 67 11 +56 54
2 Varketili 23 57 14 +43 52
3 Irao 23 39 28 +11 35
4 Merani Tbilisi 23 39 29 +10 40
5 Saburtalo II 23 37 19 +18 42
6 WIT Georgia 23 37 25 +12 38
7 Didube 2014 23 35 31 +4 34
8 Dinamo Tbilisi II 23 34 33 +1 32
9 Gonio 23 32 24 +8 38
10 Kolkheti Khobi 23 31 46 -15 24
11 Lokomotivi Tbilisi 23 30 29 +1 31
12 Margveti 2006 23 30 39 -9 30
13 Iveria Khashuri 23 24 48 -24 14
14 Gardabani 23 19 56 -37 16
15 Iberia 2010 23 19 58 -39 11
16 Betlemi 23 15 55 -40 16
Liga 3 Georgia. Liga 3 Predictions