Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors Statistics & Analysis

Daejeon Citizen

Oct 09, 2026 - 05:00

2 1.23

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 76%

Jeonbuk Motors

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Daejeon Citizen Daejeon Citizen ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 03, 2026 · 00:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12677701

Closing Odds 2.5

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Daejeon Citizen win · Daejeon Citizen 2–1 Jeonbuk Motors

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 1.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Daejeon Citizen (1X2)	36.5	35.8	+0.7
Draw (1X2)	29.3	27.7	+1.7
Jeonbuk Motors (1X2)	34.1	36.5	-2.4

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.3% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 27.7%. The difference — about 1.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: bet365 us

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE20)	Closing (PRE1)
Daejeon Citizen (1X2)	2.55	2.55
Draw (1X2)	3.3	3.3
Jeonbuk Motors (1X2)	2.5	2.5

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: K League 1
Fixture: Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors
Kickoff: 2026-10-09 05:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.5% · Draw 29.3% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Daejeon Citizen 1.23 — Jeonbuk Motors 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.48)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 54.9% · Implied: 46.4% · Probability edge: +8.5 pts · Est. EV: +15.3%
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 12, 2026 (UTC)

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K League 1 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	FC Seoul	30	19	5	6	62
2	Ulsan Hyundai FC	30	14	5	11	47
3	Jeju United FC	30	12	10	8	46
4	Jeonbuk Motors	30	11	11	8	44
5	Gangwon FC	30	10	13	7	43
6	Daejeon Citizen	30	10	10	10	40
7	Pohang Steelers	30	11	7	12	40
8	Incheon United	30	10	9	11	39
9	FC Anyang	30	9	11	10	38
10	Gimcheon Sangmu FC	30	5	18	7	33
11	Bucheon FC 1995	30	7	11	12	32
12	Gwangju FC	30	1	12	17	15

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	FC Seoul	30	56	25	+31	62
2	Daejeon Citizen	30	46	37	+9	40
3	Ulsan Hyundai FC	30	45	40	+5	47
4	Jeonbuk Motors	30	38	28	+10	44
5	FC Anyang	30	38	47	-9	38
6	Gangwon FC	30	36	28	+8	43
7	Incheon United	30	36	33	+3	39
8	Jeju United FC	30	35	29	+6	46
9	Bucheon FC 1995	30	31	40	-9	32
10	Gimcheon Sangmu FC	30	30	36	-6	33
11	Pohang Steelers	30	28	34	-6	40
12	Gwangju FC	30	21	63	-42	15

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Incheon United	30	2.3	0.7	+1.6	39
2	Pohang Steelers	30	1.6	0.6	+1.0	40
3	Ulsan Hyundai FC	30	2.0	1.3	+0.7	47
4	Gimcheon Sangmu FC	30	2.0	1.4	+0.6	33
5	Gangwon FC	30	0.9	0.5	+0.4	43
6	Jeju United FC	30	0.9	0.7	+0.2	46
7	Daejeon Citizen	30	0.7	0.9	-0.2	40
8	FC Seoul	30	0.5	0.9	-0.4	62
9	Bucheon FC 1995	30	1.4	2.0	-0.6	32
10	Jeonbuk Motors	30	1.3	2.0	-0.7	44
11	Gwangju FC	30	0.6	1.6	-1.0	15
12	FC Anyang	30	0.7	2.3	-1.6	38