Statistics / Football / South-Korea. K League 1 / Bucheon FC 1995 vs Daejeon Citizen

Bucheon FC 1995 vs Daejeon Citizen Statistics & Analysis

Bucheon FC 1995 Bucheon FC 1995
Sep 05, 2026 - 10:00
0 1.24
5 1.24
xG Accuracy: 25%
Daejeon Citizen Daejeon Citizen
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Daejeon Citizen Daejeon Citizen ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 0-5 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 01:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6124199

Closing Odds 1.94
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Daejeon Citizen win · Bucheon FC 1995 0–5 Daejeon Citizen
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.58 percentage points on Daejeon Citizen (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Bucheon FC 1995 (1X2) by about 7.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Bucheon FC 1995 (1X2) 31.1 23.8 +7.3
Draw (1X2) 29.6 26.5 +3.1
Daejeon Citizen (1X2) 39.4 49.7 -10.4
Over 2.5 goals 45.1 49.1 -4.0
Under 2.5 goals 54.9 50.9 +4.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.1% on Bucheon FC 1995 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 23.8%. The difference — about 7.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Bucheon FC 1995 (1X2) 4.28 4.06 +1.2
Draw (1X2) 3.69 3.64 +0.4
Daejeon Citizen (1X2) 1.88 1.94 -1.6
Over 2.5 goals 1.97 1.98 -0.3
Under 2.5 goals 1.92 1.91 +0.3

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: K League 1
  • Fixture: Bucheon FC 1995 vs Daejeon Citizen
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.1% · Draw 29.6% · Away 39.4%
  • xG (showing): Bucheon FC 1995 1.24 — Daejeon Citizen 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.48)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 54.9% · Implied: 51.0% · Probability edge: +3.9 pts · Est. EV: +4.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Bucheon FC 1995 & Daejeon Citizen!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
K League 1 K League 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FC Seoul 30 19 5 6 62
2 Ulsan Hyundai FC 30 14 5 11 47
3 Jeju United FC 30 12 10 8 46
4 Jeonbuk Motors 30 11 11 8 44
5 Gangwon FC 29 10 12 7 42
6 Daejeon Citizen 30 10 10 10 40
7 Pohang Steelers 30 11 7 12 40
8 FC Anyang 30 9 11 10 38
9 Incheon United 29 10 8 11 38
10 Gimcheon Sangmu FC 30 5 18 7 33
11 Bucheon FC 1995 30 7 11 12 32
12 Gwangju FC 30 1 12 17 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FC Seoul 30 56 25 +31 62
2 Daejeon Citizen 30 46 37 +9 40
3 Ulsan Hyundai FC 30 45 40 +5 47
4 Jeonbuk Motors 30 38 28 +10 44
5 FC Anyang 30 38 47 -9 38
6 Gangwon FC 29 36 28 +8 42
7 Incheon United 29 36 33 +3 38
8 Jeju United FC 30 35 29 +6 46
9 Bucheon FC 1995 30 31 40 -9 32
10 Gimcheon Sangmu FC 30 30 36 -6 33
11 Pohang Steelers 30 28 34 -6 40
12 Gwangju FC 30 21 63 -42 15
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Incheon United 29 2.3 0.7 +1.6 38
2 Pohang Steelers 30 1.6 0.6 +1.0 40
3 Ulsan Hyundai FC 30 2.0 1.3 +0.7 47
4 Gimcheon Sangmu FC 30 2.0 1.4 +0.6 33
5 Gangwon FC 29 0.9 0.5 +0.4 42
6 Jeju United FC 30 0.9 0.7 +0.2 46
7 Daejeon Citizen 30 0.7 0.9 -0.2 40
8 FC Seoul 30 0.5 0.9 -0.4 62
9 Bucheon FC 1995 30 1.4 2.0 -0.6 32
10 Jeonbuk Motors 30 1.3 2.0 -0.7 44
11 Gwangju FC 30 0.6 1.6 -1.0 15
12 FC Anyang 30 0.7 2.3 -1.6 38