Statistics / Football / South-Korea. K League 1 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen

Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen Statistics & Analysis

Gimcheon Sangmu FC Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Jul 25, 2026 - 10:30
3 2.20
2 1.07
xG Accuracy: 62%
Daejeon Citizen Daejeon Citizen
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Gimcheon Sangmu FC Gimcheon Sangmu FC ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 2-0, 1-1, 1-0, 3-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1453356

Closing Odds 3.01
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Gimcheon Sangmu FC win · Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3–2 Daejeon Citizen
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.94 percentage points on Daejeon Citizen (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Gimcheon Sangmu FC (1X2) by about 23.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (1X2) 56.1 32.2 +23.9
Draw (1X2) 23.9 28.8 -4.9
Daejeon Citizen (1X2) 20.0 39.1 -19.0
Over 2.5 goals 63.4 48.5 +14.9
Under 2.5 goals 36.5 51.5 -15.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 56.1% on Gimcheon Sangmu FC (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 32.2%. The difference — about 23.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (1X2) 3.12 3.01 +1.2
Draw (1X2) 3.46 3.37 +0.8
Daejeon Citizen (1X2) 2.36 2.48 -1.9
Over 2.5 goals 1.95 2.0 -1.3
Under 2.5 goals 1.93 1.88 +1.3

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: K League 1
  • Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 10:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 56.1% · Draw 23.8% · Away 20.0%
  • xG (showing): Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.2 — Daejeon Citizen 1.07 (total xG ≈ 3.27)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 63.4% · Implied: 48.6% · Probability edge: +14.8 pts · Est. EV: +27.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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K League 1 K League 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FC Seoul 30 19 5 6 62
2 Ulsan Hyundai FC 30 14 5 11 47
3 Jeju United FC 30 12 10 8 46
4 Jeonbuk Motors 30 11 11 8 44
5 Gangwon FC 29 10 12 7 42
6 Daejeon Citizen 30 10 10 10 40
7 Pohang Steelers 30 11 7 12 40
8 FC Anyang 30 9 11 10 38
9 Incheon United 29 10 8 11 38
10 Gimcheon Sangmu FC 30 5 18 7 33
11 Bucheon FC 1995 30 7 11 12 32
12 Gwangju FC 30 1 12 17 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FC Seoul 30 56 25 +31 62
2 Daejeon Citizen 30 46 37 +9 40
3 Ulsan Hyundai FC 30 45 40 +5 47
4 Jeonbuk Motors 30 38 28 +10 44
5 FC Anyang 30 38 47 -9 38
6 Gangwon FC 29 36 28 +8 42
7 Incheon United 29 36 33 +3 38
8 Jeju United FC 30 35 29 +6 46
9 Bucheon FC 1995 30 31 40 -9 32
10 Gimcheon Sangmu FC 30 30 36 -6 33
11 Pohang Steelers 30 28 34 -6 40
12 Gwangju FC 30 21 63 -42 15
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Incheon United 29 2.3 0.7 +1.6 38
2 Pohang Steelers 30 1.6 0.6 +1.0 40
3 Ulsan Hyundai FC 30 2.0 1.3 +0.7 47
4 Gimcheon Sangmu FC 30 2.0 1.4 +0.6 33
5 Gangwon FC 29 0.9 0.5 +0.4 42
6 Jeju United FC 30 0.9 0.7 +0.2 46
7 Daejeon Citizen 30 0.7 0.9 -0.2 40
8 FC Seoul 30 0.5 0.9 -0.4 62
9 Bucheon FC 1995 30 1.4 2.0 -0.6 32
10 Jeonbuk Motors 30 1.3 2.0 -0.7 44
11 Gwangju FC 30 0.6 1.6 -1.0 15
12 FC Anyang 30 0.7 2.3 -1.6 38