Statistics / Football / South-Korea. K League 1 / Incheon United vs FC Anyang

Incheon United vs FC Anyang Statistics & Analysis

Incheon United Incheon United
Jul 12, 2026 - 10:30
0 1.25
1 1.35
xG Accuracy: 64%
FC Anyang FC Anyang
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Incheon United FC Anyang ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1655035

Closing Odds 2.13
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result FC Anyang win · Incheon United 0–1 FC Anyang
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.82 percentage points on Over 2.5 goals between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on FC Anyang (1X2) by about 8.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Incheon United (1X2) 36.5 45.4 -8.9
Draw (1X2) 29.8 29.3 +0.5
FC Anyang (1X2) 33.7 25.3 +8.4
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 41.7 +6.5
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 58.3 -6.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 33.7% on FC Anyang (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 25.3%. The difference — about 8.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Incheon United (1X2) 2.1 2.13 -0.6
Draw (1X2) 3.35 3.3 +0.4
FC Anyang (1X2) 3.86 3.83 +0.2
Over 2.5 goals 2.27 2.32 -0.8
Under 2.5 goals 1.68 1.66 +0.8

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: K League 1
  • Fixture: Incheon United vs FC Anyang
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-12 10:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.5% · Draw 29.8% · Away 33.7%
  • xG (showing): Incheon United 1.25 — FC Anyang 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 42.4% · Probability edge: +5.8 pts · Est. EV: +11.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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K League 1 K League 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FC Seoul 30 19 5 6 62
2 Ulsan Hyundai FC 30 14 5 11 47
3 Jeju United FC 30 12 10 8 46
4 Jeonbuk Motors 30 11 11 8 44
5 Gangwon FC 29 10 12 7 42
6 Daejeon Citizen 30 10 10 10 40
7 Pohang Steelers 30 11 7 12 40
8 FC Anyang 30 9 11 10 38
9 Incheon United 29 10 8 11 38
10 Gimcheon Sangmu FC 30 5 18 7 33
11 Bucheon FC 1995 30 7 11 12 32
12 Gwangju FC 30 1 12 17 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FC Seoul 30 56 25 +31 62
2 Daejeon Citizen 30 46 37 +9 40
3 Ulsan Hyundai FC 30 45 40 +5 47
4 Jeonbuk Motors 30 38 28 +10 44
5 FC Anyang 30 38 47 -9 38
6 Gangwon FC 29 36 28 +8 42
7 Incheon United 29 36 33 +3 38
8 Jeju United FC 30 35 29 +6 46
9 Bucheon FC 1995 30 31 40 -9 32
10 Gimcheon Sangmu FC 30 30 36 -6 33
11 Pohang Steelers 30 28 34 -6 40
12 Gwangju FC 30 21 63 -42 15
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Incheon United 29 2.3 0.7 +1.6 38
2 Pohang Steelers 30 1.6 0.6 +1.0 40
3 Ulsan Hyundai FC 30 2.0 1.3 +0.7 47
4 Gimcheon Sangmu FC 30 2.0 1.4 +0.6 33
5 Gangwon FC 29 0.9 0.5 +0.4 42
6 Jeju United FC 30 0.9 0.7 +0.2 46
7 Daejeon Citizen 30 0.7 0.9 -0.2 40
8 FC Seoul 30 0.5 0.9 -0.4 62
9 Bucheon FC 1995 30 1.4 2.0 -0.6 32
10 Jeonbuk Motors 30 1.3 2.0 -0.7 44
11 Gwangju FC 30 0.6 1.6 -1.0 15
12 FC Anyang 30 0.7 2.3 -1.6 38