Rio Ave U19 vs Sporting CP U19 Statistics & Analysis

Rio Ave U19

May 10, 2026 - 10:00

0 1.45

3 1.25

xG Accuracy: 42%

Sporting CP U19

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 draw Sporting CP U19 ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 0-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 23:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1518239

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Sporting CP U19 win · Rio Ave U19 0–3 Sporting CP U19

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Júniores U19
Fixture: Rio Ave U19 vs Sporting CP U19
Kickoff: 2026-05-09 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Rio Ave U19 1.45 — Sporting CP U19 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 43.4% · Over 2.5 56.6%); BTTS Yes (Yes 71.7% · No 28.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 71.7% · No 28.3%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.2%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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