Benfica U19 vs União Leiria U19 Statistics & Analysis

Benfica U19

May 10, 2026 - 15:00

5 1.45

2 1.25

xG Accuracy: 31%

União Leiria U19

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Benfica U19 Benfica U19 ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 5-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 21:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1645580

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Benfica U19 win · Benfica U19 5–2 União Leiria U19

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Júniores U19
Fixture: Benfica U19 vs União Leiria U19
Kickoff: 2026-05-09 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Benfica U19 1.45 — União Leiria U19 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 41.2% · Over 2.5 58.8%); BTTS Yes (Yes 77.2% · No 22.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 77.2% · No 22.8%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.7%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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