Statistics / Football / Faroe-Islands. 1. Deild / Víkingur II vs Suduroy

Víkingur II vs Suduroy Statistics & Analysis

Víkingur II Víkingur II
Sep 19, 2026 - 17:00
4 1.31
3 1.29
xG Accuracy: 30%
Suduroy Suduroy
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Víkingur II Víkingur II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:31 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8670612

Closing Odds 4.05
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Víkingur II win · Víkingur II 4–3 Suduroy
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE5 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals, BTTS No meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 28.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Víkingur II (1X2) 35.6 39.0 -3.4
Draw (1X2) 29.7 22.0 +7.6
Suduroy (1X2) 34.7 39.0 -4.2
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 76.4 -28.2
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 23.6 +28.2
BTTS Yes 54.5 75.2 -20.6
BTTS No 45.5 24.9 +20.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 23.6%. The difference — about 28.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE5 → PRE1 · Book: Marathonbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE5) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Víkingur II (1X2) 2.29 2.29 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.05 4.05 0.0
Suduroy (1X2) 2.29 2.29 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.18 1.18 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 3.82 3.82 0.0
BTTS Yes 1.21 1.21 0.0
BTTS No 3.66 3.66 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 1. Deild
  • Fixture: Víkingur II vs Suduroy
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): Víkingur II 1.31 — Suduroy 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 23.6% · Probability edge: +28.2 pts · Est. EV: +97.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
1. Deild 1. Deild — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 B71 24 19 2 3 59
2 Víkingur II 24 17 3 4 54
3 Suduroy 24 16 2 6 50
4 ÍF II 24 10 7 7 37
5 TB 24 8 7 9 31
6 B36 II 24 9 2 13 29
7 NSÍ II 24 7 4 13 25
8 Hoyvík 24 7 2 15 23
9 HB II 24 5 7 12 22
10 EB / Streymur II 24 3 2 19 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 B71 24 76 25 +51 59
2 Suduroy 24 73 33 +40 50
3 Víkingur II 24 61 39 +22 54
4 ÍF II 24 55 48 +7 37
5 B36 II 24 51 62 -11 29
6 TB 24 46 51 -5 31
7 Hoyvík 24 36 67 -31 23
8 NSÍ II 24 34 55 -21 25
9 HB II 24 30 41 -11 22
10 EB / Streymur II 24 30 71 -41 11