Statistics / Football / Faroe-Islands. Meistaradeildin / 07 Vestur vs HB

07 Vestur vs HB Statistics & Analysis

07 Vestur 07 Vestur
Jul 05, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.11
4 1.49
xG Accuracy: 49%
HB HB
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 HB HB ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 07:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1568817

Closing Odds 1.41
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result HB win · 07 Vestur 1–4 HB
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices 07 Vestur (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 15.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
07 Vestur (1X2) 23.2 14.7 +8.5
Draw (1X2) 26.8 20.3 +6.5
HB (1X2) 50.1 65.0 -14.9
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 63.2 -15.1
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 36.8 +15.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 36.8%. The difference — about 15.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
07 Vestur (1X2) 6.23 6.23 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.52 4.52 0.0
HB (1X2) 1.41 1.41 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.47 1.47 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.53 2.53 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Meistaradeildin
  • Fixture: 07 Vestur vs HB
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-05 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 23.2% · Draw 26.8% · Away 50.1%
  • xG (showing): 07 Vestur 1.11 — HB 1.49 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 38.1% · Probability edge: +13.7 pts · Est. EV: +32.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Meistaradeildin Meistaradeildin — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 NSI Runavik 21 13 5 3 44
2 KI Klaksvik 21 11 8 2 41
3 HB 21 11 4 6 37
4 B36 Torshavn 21 9 8 4 35
5 Vikingur Gota 21 8 9 4 33
6 AB 21 7 2 12 23
7 Skála 21 5 6 10 21
8 EB / Streymur 21 5 5 11 20
9 07 Vestur 21 5 3 13 18
10 B68 21 4 4 13 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 NSI Runavik 21 44 24 +20 44
2 KI Klaksvik 21 42 19 +23 41
3 HB 21 38 25 +13 37
4 B36 Torshavn 21 31 24 +7 35
5 Vikingur Gota 21 30 23 +7 33
6 AB 21 29 37 -8 23
7 EB / Streymur 21 25 35 -10 20
8 Skála 21 21 33 -12 21
9 B68 21 21 42 -21 16
10 07 Vestur 21 18 37 -19 18
Meistaradeildin Faroe-Islands. Meistaradeildin Predictions