Statistics / Football / Faroe-Islands. Meistaradeildin / AB vs HB

AB vs HB Statistics & Analysis

AB AB
Jun 14, 2026 - 16:15
3 1.16
1 1.44
xG Accuracy: 53%
HB HB
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 HB AB ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 25, 2026 · 16:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5455891

Closing Odds 1.88
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result AB win · AB 3–1 HB
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 6.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
AB (1X2) 28.8 27.9 +0.9
Draw (1X2) 29.3 23.5 +5.8
HB (1X2) 41.9 48.6 -6.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 54.8 -6.6
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 45.2 +6.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 45.2%. The difference — about 6.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
AB (1X2) 3.28 3.28 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.89 3.89 0.0
HB (1X2) 1.88 1.88 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.71 1.71 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.07 2.07 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Meistaradeildin
  • Fixture: AB vs HB
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-14 16:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 28.8% · Draw 29.3% · Away 41.9%
  • xG (showing): AB 1.16 — HB 1.44 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 45.1% · Probability edge: +6.7 pts · Est. EV: +8.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 25, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Meistaradeildin Meistaradeildin — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 NSI Runavik 23 14 6 3 48
2 KI Klaksvik 23 12 9 2 45
3 HB 23 12 5 6 41
4 Vikingur Gota 23 8 11 4 35
5 B36 Torshavn 23 9 8 6 35
6 EB / Streymur 23 7 5 11 26
7 AB 23 7 3 13 24
8 Skála 23 5 8 10 23
9 07 Vestur 23 5 4 14 19
10 B68 23 4 5 14 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 NSI Runavik 23 47 26 +21 48
2 KI Klaksvik 23 45 21 +24 45
3 HB 23 44 28 +16 41
4 Vikingur Gota 23 34 27 +7 35
5 B36 Torshavn 23 33 28 +5 35
6 AB 23 31 42 -11 24
7 EB / Streymur 23 30 38 -8 26
8 Skála 23 25 37 -12 23
9 B68 23 24 46 -22 17
10 07 Vestur 23 21 41 -20 19