Statistics / Football / Poland. Ekstraliga Women / Lech Poznan W vs GKS Katowice W

Lech Poznan W vs GKS Katowice W Statistics & Analysis

Lech Poznan W Lech Poznan W
May 20, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.45
4 1.25
xG Accuracy: 42%
GKS Katowice W GKS Katowice W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Lech Poznan W GKS Katowice W ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 0-2, 1-3, 0-1 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 16:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3448386

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result GKS Katowice W win · Lech Poznan W 1–4 GKS Katowice W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ekstraliga Women
  • Fixture: Lech Poznan W vs GKS Katowice W
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-20 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Lech Poznan W 1.45 — GKS Katowice W 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 33.0% · Over 2.5 67.0%); BTTS Yes (Yes 69.8% · No 30.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 69.8% · No 30.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (9.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Ekstraliga Women Ekstraliga Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Czarni Sosnowiec W 22 18 2 2 56
2 Pogon Szczecin W 22 16 3 3 51
3 GKS Katowice W 22 15 3 4 48
4 Górnik Łęczna W 22 15 2 5 47
5 UKS Łódź 22 8 5 9 29
6 Rekord Bielsko-Biala W 22 8 4 10 28
7 Slask Wroclaw W 22 8 2 12 26
8 Lech Poznan W 22 7 5 10 26
9 UJ Krakow W 22 6 6 10 24
10 Akademia Piłkarska LG 22 7 2 13 23
11 Stomilanki Olsztyn W 22 3 2 17 11
12 Pogon Tczew W 22 1 4 17 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Czarni Sosnowiec W 22 68 18 +50 56
2 Pogon Szczecin W 22 60 18 +42 51
3 GKS Katowice W 22 51 26 +25 48
4 Górnik Łęczna W 22 49 20 +29 47
5 Slask Wroclaw W 22 39 33 +6 26
6 UKS Łódź 22 35 35 0 29
7 Rekord Bielsko-Biala W 22 29 34 -5 28
8 Lech Poznan W 22 29 46 -17 26
9 UJ Krakow W 22 26 37 -11 24
10 Akademia Piłkarska LG 22 24 45 -21 23
11 Stomilanki Olsztyn W 22 23 70 -47 11
12 Pogon Tczew W 22 15 66 -51 7
Ekstraliga Women Poland. Ekstraliga Women Predictions