Statistics / Football / Chile. Primera División / Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica

Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica Statistics & Analysis

Coquimbo Unido Coquimbo Unido
Aug 26, 2026 - 22:00
1 1.55
2 0.92
xG Accuracy: 64%
U. Catolica U. Catolica
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Coquimbo Unido U. Catolica ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 20, 2026 · 03:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4680495

Closing Odds 2.29
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result U. Catolica win · Coquimbo Unido 1–2 U. Catolica
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Coquimbo Unido (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Coquimbo Unido (1X2) by about 8.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Coquimbo Unido (1X2) 50.5 42.0 +8.5
Draw (1X2) 28.7 29.3 -0.6
U. Catolica (1X2) 20.8 28.7 -7.9
Over 2.5 goals 44.9 43.1 +1.8
Under 2.5 goals 55.1 56.9 -1.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 50.5% on Coquimbo Unido (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 42.0%. The difference — about 8.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Coquimbo Unido (1X2) 2.29 2.29 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.28 3.28 0.0
U. Catolica (1X2) 3.35 3.35 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.23 2.23 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.69 1.69 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Primera División
  • Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-26 22:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 50.5% · Draw 28.7% · Away 20.8%
  • xG (showing): Coquimbo Unido 1.55 — U. Catolica 0.92 (total xG ≈ 2.47)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS No
  • Model: 51.0% · Implied: 49.0% · Probability edge: +2.0 pts · Est. EV: +7.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 48.9% · No 51.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (13.1%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Primera División Primera División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Colo Colo 23 17 3 3 54
2 U. Catolica 23 13 3 7 42
3 Universidad de Chile 23 12 6 5 42
4 Everton de Vina 23 10 6 7 36
5 Palestino 23 11 3 9 36
6 Deportes Limache 23 10 3 10 33
7 Nublense 23 8 8 7 32
8 Concepción 23 9 4 10 31
9 D. La Serena 23 7 9 7 30
10 Coquimbo Unido 22 8 5 9 29
11 A. Italiano 23 7 7 9 28
12 O'Higgins 23 8 3 12 27
13 Huachipato 21 7 4 10 25
14 Cobresal 23 7 3 13 24
15 Universidad de Concepcion 22 6 4 12 22
16 Union La Calera 23 4 5 14 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 U. Catolica 23 50 33 +17 42
2 Colo Colo 23 48 22 +26 54
3 Deportes Limache 23 43 35 +8 33
4 Everton de Vina 23 37 25 +12 36
5 Palestino 23 36 33 +3 36
6 Universidad de Chile 23 35 19 +16 42
7 D. La Serena 23 34 38 -4 30
8 Cobresal 23 34 44 -10 24
9 Coquimbo Unido 22 31 31 0 29
10 Huachipato 21 29 39 -10 25
11 Nublense 23 28 31 -3 32
12 O'Higgins 23 28 36 -8 27
13 A. Italiano 23 26 31 -5 28
14 Concepción 23 25 26 -1 31
15 Union La Calera 23 19 40 -21 17
16 Universidad de Concepcion 22 17 37 -20 22
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 U. Catolica 23 1.5 1.2 +0.3 42
2 Nublense 23 1.2 1.5 -0.3 32
3 Colo Colo 23 — — — 54
4 Universidad de Chile 23 — — — 42
5 Everton de Vina 23 — — — 36
6 Palestino 23 — — — 36
7 Deportes Limache 23 — — — 33
8 Concepción 23 — — — 31
9 D. La Serena 23 — — — 30
10 Coquimbo Unido 22 — — — 29
11 A. Italiano 23 — — — 28
12 O'Higgins 23 — — — 27
13 Huachipato 21 — — — 25
14 Cobresal 23 — — — 24
15 Universidad de Concepcion 22 — — — 22
16 Union La Calera 23 — — — 17
Primera División Chile. Primera División Predictions