Statistics / Football / Sweden. Ettan - Norra / Umeå FC vs Hammarby Talang

Umeå FC vs Hammarby Talang Statistics & Analysis

Umeå FC Umeå FC
Oct 04, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.29
1 1.31
xG Accuracy: 76%
Hammarby Talang Hammarby Talang
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Hammarby Talang Umeå FC ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 02:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11678375

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Umeå FC win · Umeå FC 2–1 Hammarby Talang
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Ettan - Norra
  • Fixture: Umeå FC vs Hammarby Talang
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Umeå FC 1.29 — Hammarby Talang 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 05, 2026 (UTC)

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Ettan - Norra Ettan - Norra — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Stockholm Internazionale 25 18 3 4 57
2 AFC Eskilstuna 25 14 5 6 47
3 Hammarby Talang 24 13 6 5 45
4 Arlanda 24 13 6 5 45
5 FBK Karlstad 25 12 7 6 43
6 Enköping 25 13 3 9 42
7 IF Karlstad 25 11 8 6 41
8 Assyriska FF 25 9 5 11 32
9 Karlberg 25 9 5 11 32
10 gefle IF 25 9 3 13 30
11 Umeå FC 24 8 5 11 29
12 Vasalund 24 7 6 11 27
13 Sollentuna 25 5 9 11 24
14 Piteå 25 5 7 13 22
15 Järfälla 25 5 4 16 19
16 Stocksund 25 3 6 16 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Stockholm Internazionale 25 60 20 +40 57
2 Hammarby Talang 24 50 23 +27 45
3 AFC Eskilstuna 25 47 34 +13 47
4 Stocksund 25 45 61 -16 15
5 Assyriska FF 25 43 45 -2 32
6 Arlanda 24 42 27 +15 45
7 FBK Karlstad 25 41 35 +6 43
8 Enköping 25 38 40 -2 42
9 IF Karlstad 25 37 25 +12 41
10 Vasalund 24 35 48 -13 27
11 Karlberg 25 33 41 -8 32
12 Järfälla 25 33 55 -22 19
13 Umeå FC 24 32 40 -8 29
14 Piteå 25 30 46 -16 22
15 gefle IF 25 29 43 -14 30
16 Sollentuna 25 24 36 -12 24
Ettan - Norra Sweden. Ettan - Norra Predictions