Vasalund vs Assyriska FF Statistics & Analysis

Vasalund

Sep 21, 2026 - 17:00

1 1.41

5 1.19

xG Accuracy: 31%

Assyriska FF

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Vasalund Assyriska FF ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 1-5 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 15, 2026 · 02:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8840026

Closing Odds 3.25

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Assyriska FF win · Vasalund 1–5 Assyriska FF

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 3.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Vasalund (1X2)	40.5	42.2	-1.7
Draw (1X2)	29.4	26.1	+3.3
Assyriska FF (1X2)	30.1	31.8	-1.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.4% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 26.1%. The difference — about 3.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: SBO

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Vasalund (1X2)	2.01	2.01
Draw (1X2)	3.25	3.25
Assyriska FF (1X2)	2.67	2.67

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Ettan - Norra
Fixture: Vasalund vs Assyriska FF
Kickoff: 2026-09-21 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
xG (showing): Vasalund 1.41 — Assyriska FF 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
Model: 45.8% · Implied: 36.6% · Probability edge: +9.2 pts · Est. EV: +20.4%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Ettan - Norra — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Stockholm Internazionale	24	17	3	4	54
2	AFC Eskilstuna	24	14	4	6	46
3	Hammarby Talang	24	13	6	5	45
4	Arlanda	24	13	6	5	45
5	FBK Karlstad	24	12	6	6	42
6	IF Karlstad	24	11	7	6	40
7	Enköping	24	12	3	9	39
8	Assyriska FF	24	9	5	10	32
9	gefle IF	24	9	3	12	30
10	Umeå FC	24	8	5	11	29
11	Karlberg	24	8	5	11	29
12	Vasalund	24	7	6	11	27
13	Sollentuna	24	5	9	10	24
14	Piteå	24	5	6	13	21
15	Järfälla	24	5	3	16	18
16	Stocksund	24	3	5	16	14

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Stockholm Internazionale	24	57	20	+37	54
2	Hammarby Talang	24	50	23	+27	45
3	AFC Eskilstuna	24	45	32	+13	46
4	Stocksund	24	44	60	-16	14
5	Assyriska FF	24	43	42	+1	32
6	Arlanda	24	42	27	+15	45
7	FBK Karlstad	24	39	33	+6	42
8	Enköping	24	37	40	-3	39
9	IF Karlstad	24	36	24	+12	40
10	Vasalund	24	35	48	-13	27
11	Umeå FC	24	32	40	-8	29
12	Järfälla	24	32	54	-22	18
13	Karlberg	24	30	39	-9	29
14	gefle IF	24	29	42	-13	30
15	Piteå	24	29	45	-16	21
16	Sollentuna	24	22	33	-11	24