Piteå vs Järfälla Statistics & Analysis

Piteå

Sep 20, 2026 - 12:30

3 1.21

1 1.39

xG Accuracy: 55%

Järfälla

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Järfälla Piteå ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8667516

Closing Odds 1.98

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Piteå win · Piteå 3–1 Järfälla

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.82 percentage points on Over 2.5 goals between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 10.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Piteå (1X2)	31.0	46.8	-15.8
Draw (1X2)	29.5	23.6	+5.8
Järfälla (1X2)	39.5	29.5	+10.0
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	58.8	-10.6
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	41.2	+10.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 41.2%. The difference — about 10.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Piteå (1X2)	1.95	1.98	-0.0
Draw (1X2)	3.88	3.92	+0.1
Järfälla (1X2)	3.09	3.14	-0.1
Over 2.5 goals	1.56	1.6	-0.8
Under 2.5 goals	2.3	2.28	+0.8

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Ettan - Norra
Fixture: Piteå vs Järfälla
Kickoff: 2026-09-20 12:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.5%
xG (showing): Piteå 1.21 — Järfälla 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 41.0% · Probability edge: +10.8 pts · Est. EV: +21.7%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 23, 2026 (UTC)

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Ettan - Norra — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Stockholm Internazionale	23	16	3	4	51
2	AFC Eskilstuna	23	13	4	6	43
3	Hammarby Talang	23	12	6	5	42
4	Arlanda	23	12	6	5	42
5	IF Karlstad	23	11	6	6	39
6	FBK Karlstad	23	11	6	6	39
7	Enköping	23	12	3	8	39
8	Assyriska FF	23	9	5	9	32
9	gefle IF	23	9	3	11	30
10	Umeå FC	23	8	5	10	29
11	Karlberg	23	8	4	11	28
12	Sollentuna	23	5	9	9	24
13	Vasalund	23	6	6	11	24
14	Piteå	23	4	6	13	18
15	Järfälla	23	5	3	15	18
16	Stocksund	23	3	5	15	14

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Stockholm Internazionale	23	55	19	+36	51
2	Hammarby Talang	23	48	22	+26	42
3	Stocksund	23	43	58	-15	14
4	Assyriska FF	23	42	40	+2	32
5	AFC Eskilstuna	23	41	30	+11	43
6	Arlanda	23	40	27	+13	42
7	Enköping	23	37	38	-1	39
8	FBK Karlstad	23	36	32	+4	39
9	IF Karlstad	23	35	23	+12	39
10	Vasalund	23	34	48	-14	24
11	Umeå FC	23	31	37	-6	29
12	Järfälla	23	30	50	-20	18
13	Karlberg	23	29	38	-9	28
14	gefle IF	23	29	41	-12	30
15	Piteå	23	27	44	-17	18
16	Sollentuna	23	21	31	-10	24