Järfälla vs Karlberg Statistics & Analysis

Järfälla

Sep 17, 2026 - 17:30

5 1.33

0 1.27

xG Accuracy: 26%

Karlberg

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Järfälla Järfälla ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 5-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 11, 2026 · 04:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7998788

Closing Odds 1.9

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Järfälla win · Järfälla 5–0 Karlberg

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Järfälla (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 13.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Järfälla (1X2)	36.6	27.8	+8.8
Draw (1X2)	29.6	24.0	+5.7
Karlberg (1X2)	33.8	48.2	-14.5
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	61.6	-13.4
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	38.4	+13.4

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 38.4%. The difference — about 13.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Järfälla (1X2)	3.3	3.3
Draw (1X2)	3.82	3.82
Karlberg (1X2)	1.9	1.9
Over 2.5 goals	1.51	1.51
Under 2.5 goals	2.42	2.42

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Ettan - Norra
Fixture: Järfälla vs Karlberg
Kickoff: 2026-09-17 17:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
xG (showing): Järfälla 1.33 — Karlberg 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 38.4% · Probability edge: +13.4 pts · Est. EV: +32.1%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Ettan - Norra — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Stockholm Internazionale	24	17	3	4	54
2	AFC Eskilstuna	24	14	4	6	46
3	Hammarby Talang	24	13	6	5	45
4	Arlanda	23	12	6	5	42
5	IF Karlstad	23	11	6	6	39
6	FBK Karlstad	23	11	6	6	39
7	Enköping	23	12	3	8	39
8	Assyriska FF	23	9	5	9	32
9	gefle IF	23	9	3	11	30
10	Umeå FC	23	8	5	10	29
11	Karlberg	23	8	4	11	28
12	Sollentuna	24	5	9	10	24
13	Vasalund	23	6	6	11	24
14	Piteå	23	4	6	13	18
15	Järfälla	24	5	3	16	18
16	Stocksund	24	3	5	16	14

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Stockholm Internazionale	24	57	20	+37	54
2	Hammarby Talang	24	50	23	+27	45
3	AFC Eskilstuna	24	45	32	+13	46
4	Stocksund	24	44	60	-16	14
5	Assyriska FF	23	42	40	+2	32
6	Arlanda	23	40	27	+13	42
7	Enköping	23	37	38	-1	39
8	FBK Karlstad	23	36	32	+4	39
9	IF Karlstad	23	35	23	+12	39
10	Vasalund	23	34	48	-14	24
11	Järfälla	24	32	54	-22	18
12	Umeå FC	23	31	37	-6	29
13	Karlberg	23	29	38	-9	28
14	gefle IF	23	29	41	-12	30
15	Piteå	23	27	44	-17	18
16	Sollentuna	24	22	33	-11	24