Assyriska FF vs AFC Eskilstuna Statistics & Analysis

Assyriska FF

Sep 17, 2026 - 17:30

2 1.33

5 1.27

xG Accuracy: 30%

AFC Eskilstuna

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Assyriska FF AFC Eskilstuna ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-5 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 11, 2026 · 03:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7998658

Closing Odds 3.7

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result AFC Eskilstuna win · Assyriska FF 2–5 AFC Eskilstuna

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals, BTTS No meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 14.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Assyriska FF (1X2)	36.6	37.8	-1.2
Draw (1X2)	29.6	24.3	+5.3
AFC Eskilstuna (1X2)	33.8	37.8	-4.1
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	62.5	-14.3
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	37.5	+14.3
BTTS Yes	54.5	64.5	-10.0
BTTS No	45.5	35.5	+10.0

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 37.5%. The difference — about 14.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Assyriska FF (1X2)	2.38	2.38
Draw (1X2)	3.7	3.7
AFC Eskilstuna (1X2)	2.38	2.38
Over 2.5 goals	1.5	1.5
Under 2.5 goals	2.5	2.5
BTTS Yes	1.44	1.44
BTTS No	2.62	2.62

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Ettan - Norra
Fixture: Assyriska FF vs AFC Eskilstuna
Kickoff: 2026-09-17 17:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
xG (showing): Assyriska FF 1.33 — AFC Eskilstuna 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 36.4% · Probability edge: +15.4 pts · Est. EV: +34.7%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Ettan - Norra — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Stockholm Internazionale	24	17	3	4	54
2	AFC Eskilstuna	24	14	4	6	46
3	Hammarby Talang	24	13	6	5	45
4	Arlanda	24	13	6	5	45
5	FBK Karlstad	24	12	6	6	42
6	IF Karlstad	24	11	7	6	40
7	Enköping	24	12	3	9	39
8	Assyriska FF	24	9	5	10	32
9	gefle IF	24	9	3	12	30
10	Umeå FC	24	8	5	11	29
11	Karlberg	24	8	5	11	29
12	Vasalund	24	7	6	11	27
13	Sollentuna	24	5	9	10	24
14	Piteå	24	5	6	13	21
15	Järfälla	24	5	3	16	18
16	Stocksund	24	3	5	16	14

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Stockholm Internazionale	24	57	20	+37	54
2	Hammarby Talang	24	50	23	+27	45
3	AFC Eskilstuna	24	45	32	+13	46
4	Stocksund	24	44	60	-16	14
5	Assyriska FF	24	43	42	+1	32
6	Arlanda	24	42	27	+15	45
7	FBK Karlstad	24	39	33	+6	42
8	Enköping	24	37	40	-3	39
9	IF Karlstad	24	36	24	+12	40
10	Vasalund	24	35	48	-13	27
11	Umeå FC	24	32	40	-8	29
12	Järfälla	24	32	54	-22	18
13	Karlberg	24	30	39	-9	29
14	gefle IF	24	29	42	-13	30
15	Piteå	24	29	45	-16	21
16	Sollentuna	24	22	33	-11	24