Statistics / Football / Sweden. Ettan - Norra / Piteå vs Vasalund

Piteå vs Vasalund Statistics & Analysis

Piteå Piteå
Aug 16, 2026 - 10:30
1 1.11
1 1.49
xG Accuracy: 85%
Vasalund Vasalund
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Vasalund Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 00:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3600661

Closing Odds 1.79
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Piteå 1–1 Vasalund
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.77 percentage points on Vasalund (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 11.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Piteå (1X2) 26.7 25.3 +1.4
Draw (1X2) 29.0 23.6 +5.4
Vasalund (1X2) 44.3 51.1 -6.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 59.8 -11.6
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 40.2 +11.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 40.2%. The difference — about 11.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Piteå (1X2) 3.53 3.61 -0.6
Draw (1X2) 3.86 3.88 -0.2
Vasalund (1X2) 1.82 1.79 +0.8
Over 2.5 goals 1.56 1.56 +0.1
Under 2.5 goals 2.31 2.32 -0.1

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ettan - Norra
  • Fixture: Piteå vs Vasalund
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-16 10:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 26.7% · Draw 29.0% · Away 44.3%
  • xG (showing): Piteå 1.11 — Vasalund 1.49 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 40.1% · Probability edge: +11.7 pts · Est. EV: +24.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.5% · No 46.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 26, 2026 (UTC)

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Ettan - Norra Ettan - Norra — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Stockholm Internazionale 23 16 3 4 51
2 Hammarby Talang 24 13 6 5 45
3 AFC Eskilstuna 23 13 4 6 43
4 Arlanda 23 12 6 5 42
5 IF Karlstad 23 11 6 6 39
6 FBK Karlstad 23 11 6 6 39
7 Enköping 23 12 3 8 39
8 Assyriska FF 23 9 5 9 32
9 gefle IF 23 9 3 11 30
10 Umeå FC 23 8 5 10 29
11 Karlberg 23 8 4 11 28
12 Sollentuna 23 5 9 9 24
13 Vasalund 23 6 6 11 24
14 Piteå 23 4 6 13 18
15 Järfälla 23 5 3 15 18
16 Stocksund 24 3 5 16 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Stockholm Internazionale 23 55 19 +36 51
2 Hammarby Talang 24 50 23 +27 45
3 Stocksund 24 44 60 -16 14
4 Assyriska FF 23 42 40 +2 32
5 AFC Eskilstuna 23 41 30 +11 43
6 Arlanda 23 40 27 +13 42
7 Enköping 23 37 38 -1 39
8 FBK Karlstad 23 36 32 +4 39
9 IF Karlstad 23 35 23 +12 39
10 Vasalund 23 34 48 -14 24
11 Umeå FC 23 31 37 -6 29
12 Järfälla 23 30 50 -20 18
13 Karlberg 23 29 38 -9 28
14 gefle IF 23 29 41 -12 30
15 Piteå 23 27 44 -17 18
16 Sollentuna 23 21 31 -10 24
Ettan - Norra Sweden. Ettan - Norra Predictions