Arlanda vs Piteå Statistics & Analysis

Arlanda

Aug 09, 2026 - 15:00

0 1.45

0 1.15

xG Accuracy: 49%

Piteå

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Arlanda Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 01:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2965147

Closing Odds 1.41

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Arlanda 0–0 Piteå

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Piteå (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Piteå (1X2) by about 13.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Arlanda (1X2)	42.4	65.0	-22.6
Draw (1X2)	29.2	19.7	+9.5
Piteå (1X2)	28.4	15.3	+13.1
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	60.4	-12.2
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	39.6	+12.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 28.4% on Piteå (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 15.3%. The difference — about 13.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Arlanda (1X2)	1.41	1.41
Draw (1X2)	4.65	4.65
Piteå (1X2)	6.0	6.0
Over 2.5 goals	1.54	1.54
Under 2.5 goals	2.35	2.35

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Ettan - Norra
Fixture: Arlanda vs Piteå
Kickoff: 2026-08-09 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 28.4%
xG (showing): Arlanda 1.45 — Piteå 1.15 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 26, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Ettan - Norra — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Stockholm Internazionale	23	16	3	4	51
2	Hammarby Talang	24	13	6	5	45
3	AFC Eskilstuna	23	13	4	6	43
4	Arlanda	23	12	6	5	42
5	IF Karlstad	23	11	6	6	39
6	FBK Karlstad	23	11	6	6	39
7	Enköping	23	12	3	8	39
8	Assyriska FF	23	9	5	9	32
9	gefle IF	23	9	3	11	30
10	Umeå FC	23	8	5	10	29
11	Karlberg	23	8	4	11	28
12	Sollentuna	23	5	9	9	24
13	Vasalund	23	6	6	11	24
14	Piteå	23	4	6	13	18
15	Järfälla	23	5	3	15	18
16	Stocksund	24	3	5	16	14

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Stockholm Internazionale	23	55	19	+36	51
2	Hammarby Talang	24	50	23	+27	45
3	Stocksund	24	44	60	-16	14
4	Assyriska FF	23	42	40	+2	32
5	AFC Eskilstuna	23	41	30	+11	43
6	Arlanda	23	40	27	+13	42
7	Enköping	23	37	38	-1	39
8	FBK Karlstad	23	36	32	+4	39
9	IF Karlstad	23	35	23	+12	39
10	Vasalund	23	34	48	-14	24
11	Umeå FC	23	31	37	-6	29
12	Järfälla	23	30	50	-20	18
13	Karlberg	23	29	38	-9	28
14	gefle IF	23	29	41	-12	30
15	Piteå	23	27	44	-17	18
16	Sollentuna	23	21	31	-10	24