Statistics / Football / Sweden. Ettan - Norra / Piteå vs gefle IF

Piteå vs gefle IF Statistics & Analysis

Piteå Piteå
Aug 01, 2026 - 12:00
0 1.24
2 1.36
xG Accuracy: 60%
gefle IF gefle IF
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 gefle IF gefle IF ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 02:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1794813

Closing Odds 2.05
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result gefle IF win · Piteå 0–2 gefle IF
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Piteå (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 10.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Piteå (1X2) 32.4 29.9 +2.5
Draw (1X2) 29.6 25.4 +4.2
gefle IF (1X2) 38.0 44.7 -6.6
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 58.9 -10.7
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 41.1 +10.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 41.1%. The difference — about 10.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Piteå (1X2) 3.06 3.06 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.6 3.6 0.0
gefle IF (1X2) 2.05 2.05 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.58 1.58 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.26 2.26 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Ettan - Norra
  • Fixture: Piteå vs gefle IF
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-01 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
  • xG (showing): Piteå 1.24 — gefle IF 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 42.1% · Probability edge: +9.7 pts · Est. EV: +17.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 26, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Ettan - Norra Ettan - Norra — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Stockholm Internazionale 23 16 3 4 51
2 Hammarby Talang 24 13 6 5 45
3 AFC Eskilstuna 23 13 4 6 43
4 Arlanda 23 12 6 5 42
5 IF Karlstad 23 11 6 6 39
6 FBK Karlstad 23 11 6 6 39
7 Enköping 23 12 3 8 39
8 Assyriska FF 23 9 5 9 32
9 gefle IF 23 9 3 11 30
10 Umeå FC 23 8 5 10 29
11 Karlberg 23 8 4 11 28
12 Sollentuna 23 5 9 9 24
13 Vasalund 23 6 6 11 24
14 Piteå 23 4 6 13 18
15 Järfälla 23 5 3 15 18
16 Stocksund 24 3 5 16 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Stockholm Internazionale 23 55 19 +36 51
2 Hammarby Talang 24 50 23 +27 45
3 Stocksund 24 44 60 -16 14
4 Assyriska FF 23 42 40 +2 32
5 AFC Eskilstuna 23 41 30 +11 43
6 Arlanda 23 40 27 +13 42
7 Enköping 23 37 38 -1 39
8 FBK Karlstad 23 36 32 +4 39
9 IF Karlstad 23 35 23 +12 39
10 Vasalund 23 34 48 -14 24
11 Umeå FC 23 31 37 -6 29
12 Järfälla 23 30 50 -20 18
13 Karlberg 23 29 38 -9 28
14 gefle IF 23 29 41 -12 30
15 Piteå 23 27 44 -17 18
16 Sollentuna 23 21 31 -10 24
Ettan - Norra Sweden. Ettan - Norra Predictions