Statistics / Football / Sweden. Ettan - Norra / Piteå vs AFC Eskilstuna

Piteå vs AFC Eskilstuna Statistics & Analysis

Piteå Piteå
Jun 21, 2026 - 11:00
2 1.20
2 1.40
xG Accuracy: 68%
AFC Eskilstuna AFC Eskilstuna
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 AFC Eskilstuna Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 30, 2026 · 21:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2538886

Closing Odds 3.82
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Piteå 2–2 AFC Eskilstuna
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 18.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Piteå (1X2) 30.4 30.4 -0.0
Draw (1X2) 28.1 24.0 +4.1
AFC Eskilstuna (1X2) 41.5 45.6 -4.1
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 66.5 -18.3
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 33.5 +18.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 33.5%. The difference — about 18.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Piteå (1X2) 3.01 3.01 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.82 3.82 0.0
AFC Eskilstuna (1X2) 2.01 2.01 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.4 1.4 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.78 2.78 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ettan - Norra
  • Fixture: Piteå vs AFC Eskilstuna
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-21 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.4% · Draw 28.1% · Away 41.5%
  • xG (showing): Piteå 1.2 — AFC Eskilstuna 1.4 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 34.4% · Probability edge: +17.4 pts · Est. EV: +49.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Ettan - Norra Ettan - Norra — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Stockholm Internazionale 24 17 3 4 54
2 AFC Eskilstuna 24 14 4 6 46
3 Hammarby Talang 24 13 6 5 45
4 Arlanda 23 12 6 5 42
5 IF Karlstad 23 11 6 6 39
6 FBK Karlstad 23 11 6 6 39
7 Enköping 23 12 3 8 39
8 Assyriska FF 23 9 5 9 32
9 gefle IF 23 9 3 11 30
10 Umeå FC 23 8 5 10 29
11 Karlberg 23 8 4 11 28
12 Sollentuna 24 5 9 10 24
13 Vasalund 23 6 6 11 24
14 Piteå 23 4 6 13 18
15 Järfälla 24 5 3 16 18
16 Stocksund 24 3 5 16 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Stockholm Internazionale 24 57 20 +37 54
2 Hammarby Talang 24 50 23 +27 45
3 AFC Eskilstuna 24 45 32 +13 46
4 Stocksund 24 44 60 -16 14
5 Assyriska FF 23 42 40 +2 32
6 Arlanda 23 40 27 +13 42
7 Enköping 23 37 38 -1 39
8 FBK Karlstad 23 36 32 +4 39
9 IF Karlstad 23 35 23 +12 39
10 Vasalund 23 34 48 -14 24
11 Järfälla 24 32 54 -22 18
12 Umeå FC 23 31 37 -6 29
13 Karlberg 23 29 38 -9 28
14 gefle IF 23 29 41 -12 30
15 Piteå 23 27 44 -17 18
16 Sollentuna 24 22 33 -11 24
Ettan - Norra Sweden. Ettan - Norra Predictions