Statistics / Football / Sweden. Ettan - Södra / Lund vs Trollhättan

Lund vs Trollhättan Statistics & Analysis

Lund Lund
Oct 10, 2026 - 14:00
4 1.27
3 1.33
xG Accuracy: 30%
Trollhättan Trollhättan
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Trollhättan Lund ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 02:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13221264

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Lund win · Lund 4–3 Trollhättan
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ettan - Södra
  • Fixture: Lund vs Trollhättan
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Lund 1.27 — Trollhättan 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 38.1% · Probability edge: +13.7 pts · Est. EV: +32.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Ettan - Södra Ettan - Södra — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 trelleborgs FF 26 17 6 3 57
2 Hässleholms IF 26 15 3 8 48
3 Atvidabergs FF 26 13 8 5 47
4 Lund 26 12 8 6 44
5 AFC Malmo 26 12 8 6 44
6 Rosengård 26 10 9 7 39
7 Trollhättan 26 10 8 8 38
8 Jonkopings Sodra 26 9 6 11 33
9 Olympic 26 10 3 13 33
10 Tvååker 25 9 6 10 33
11 Skövde AIK 26 8 9 9 33
12 Eskilsminne 26 9 5 12 32
13 Kristianstad 26 7 6 13 27
14 Laholm 25 7 4 14 25
15 Angelholms FF 25 4 9 12 21
16 Utsikten 25 2 6 17 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 trelleborgs FF 26 57 28 +29 57
2 Lund 26 50 32 +18 44
3 Atvidabergs FF 26 50 36 +14 47
4 AFC Malmo 26 49 37 +12 44
5 Olympic 26 48 50 -2 33
6 Hässleholms IF 26 47 30 +17 48
7 Trollhättan 26 45 41 +4 38
8 Rosengård 26 42 38 +4 39
9 Eskilsminne 26 42 51 -9 32
10 Tvååker 25 33 39 -6 33
11 Skövde AIK 26 33 42 -9 33
12 Laholm 25 32 43 -11 25
13 Angelholms FF 25 31 47 -16 21
14 Jonkopings Sodra 26 29 27 +2 33
15 Kristianstad 26 29 39 -10 27
16 Utsikten 25 23 60 -37 12
Ettan - Södra Sweden. Ettan - Södra Predictions