Statistics / Football / Sweden. Ettan - Södra / Kristianstad vs AFC Malmo

Kristianstad vs AFC Malmo Statistics & Analysis

Kristianstad Kristianstad
Oct 02, 2026 - 17:00
0 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 64%
⚽
AFC Malmo
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Kristianstad AFC Malmo ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 26, 2026 · 01:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10973801

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result AFC Malmo win · Kristianstad 0–1 AFC Malmo
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Ettan - Södra
  • Fixture: Kristianstad vs AFC Malmo
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-02 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Kristianstad 1.32 — AFC Malmo 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 42.7% · Probability edge: +9.1 pts · Est. EV: +16.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 07, 2026 (UTC)

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Ettan - Södra Ettan - Södra — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 trelleborgs FF 24 15 6 3 51
2 Atvidabergs FF 25 13 7 5 46
3 Hässleholms IF 25 14 3 8 45
4 Lund 25 11 8 6 41
5 AFC Malmo 25 11 8 6 41
6 Trollhättan 25 10 8 7 38
7 Rosengård 25 10 8 7 38
8 Jonkopings Sodra 25 9 6 10 33
9 Tvååker 25 9 6 10 33
10 Skövde AIK 25 8 9 8 33
11 Eskilsminne 25 9 5 11 32
12 Olympic 24 9 3 12 30
13 Kristianstad 25 7 6 12 27
14 Laholm 25 7 4 14 25
15 Angelholms FF 25 4 9 12 21
16 Utsikten 25 2 6 17 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 trelleborgs FF 24 53 28 +25 51
2 Atvidabergs FF 25 49 35 +14 46
3 Lund 25 46 29 +17 41
4 Hässleholms IF 25 46 30 +16 45
5 AFC Malmo 25 45 35 +10 41
6 Trollhättan 25 42 37 +5 38
7 Rosengård 25 41 37 +4 38
8 Olympic 24 41 46 -5 30
9 Eskilsminne 25 40 44 -4 32
10 Tvååker 25 33 39 -6 33
11 Laholm 25 32 43 -11 25
12 Skövde AIK 25 31 38 -7 33
13 Angelholms FF 25 31 47 -16 21
14 Jonkopings Sodra 25 29 26 +3 33
15 Kristianstad 25 29 37 -8 27
16 Utsikten 25 23 60 -37 12
Ettan - Södra Sweden. Ettan - Södra Predictions