Statistics / Football / Sweden. Ettan - Södra / Atvidabergs FF vs Trollhättan

Atvidabergs FF vs Trollhättan Statistics & Analysis

Atvidabergs FF Atvidabergs FF
Oct 03, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.29
1 1.31
xG Accuracy: 85%
Trollhättan Trollhättan
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Trollhättan Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 02:24 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11239125

Closing Odds 1.9
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Atvidabergs FF 1–1 Trollhättan
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE10 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Trollhättan (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 13.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Atvidabergs FF (1X2) 34.7 48.2 -13.5
Draw (1X2) 29.7 23.7 +6.0
Trollhättan (1X2) 35.6 28.1 +7.5
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 61.7 -13.5
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 38.3 +13.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 38.3%. The difference — about 13.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE10 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE10) Implied Δ (pp)
Atvidabergs FF (1X2) 1.9 1.9 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.87 3.87 0.0
Trollhättan (1X2) 3.26 3.26 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.51 1.51 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.43 2.43 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ettan - Södra
  • Fixture: Atvidabergs FF vs Trollhättan
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Atvidabergs FF 1.29 — Trollhättan 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 38.2% · Probability edge: +13.6 pts · Est. EV: +32.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Ettan - Södra Ettan - Södra — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 trelleborgs FF 24 15 6 3 51
2 Atvidabergs FF 25 13 7 5 46
3 Hässleholms IF 25 14 3 8 45
4 Lund 25 11 8 6 41
5 AFC Malmo 25 11 8 6 41
6 Trollhättan 25 10 8 7 38
7 Rosengård 25 10 8 7 38
8 Jonkopings Sodra 25 9 6 10 33
9 Tvååker 25 9 6 10 33
10 Skövde AIK 25 8 9 8 33
11 Eskilsminne 25 9 5 11 32
12 Olympic 24 9 3 12 30
13 Kristianstad 25 7 6 12 27
14 Laholm 25 7 4 14 25
15 Angelholms FF 25 4 9 12 21
16 Utsikten 25 2 6 17 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 trelleborgs FF 24 53 28 +25 51
2 Atvidabergs FF 25 49 35 +14 46
3 Lund 25 46 29 +17 41
4 Hässleholms IF 25 46 30 +16 45
5 AFC Malmo 25 45 35 +10 41
6 Trollhättan 25 42 37 +5 38
7 Rosengård 25 41 37 +4 38
8 Olympic 24 41 46 -5 30
9 Eskilsminne 25 40 44 -4 32
10 Tvååker 25 33 39 -6 33
11 Laholm 25 32 43 -11 25
12 Skövde AIK 25 31 38 -7 33
13 Angelholms FF 25 31 47 -16 21
14 Jonkopings Sodra 25 29 26 +3 33
15 Kristianstad 25 29 37 -8 27
16 Utsikten 25 23 60 -37 12