Rosengård vs Hässleholms IF Statistics & Analysis

Rosengård

Sep 26, 2026 - 11:00

2 1.08

1 1.52

xG Accuracy: 67%

Hässleholms IF

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Hässleholms IF Rosengård ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 00:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10079709

Closing Odds 1.81

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Rosengård win · Rosengård 2–1 Hässleholms IF

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Hässleholms IF (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Hässleholms IF (1X2) by about 22.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Rosengård (1X2)	25.4	50.6	-25.3
Draw (1X2)	28.8	25.6	+3.2
Hässleholms IF (1X2)	45.8	23.8	+22.1
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	56.5	-8.3
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	43.5	+8.3

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 45.8% on Hässleholms IF (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 23.8%. The difference — about 22.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Rosengård (1X2)	1.81	1.81
Draw (1X2)	3.58	3.58
Hässleholms IF (1X2)	3.86	3.86
Over 2.5 goals	1.66	1.66
Under 2.5 goals	2.16	2.16

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Ettan - Södra
Fixture: Rosengård vs Hässleholms IF
Kickoff: 2026-09-26 11:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 25.4% · Draw 28.8% · Away 45.8%
xG (showing): Rosengård 1.08 — Hässleholms IF 1.52 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 43.3% · Probability edge: +8.5 pts · Est. EV: +14.0%
BTTS (model): Yes 53.2% · No 46.8%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Ettan - Södra — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	trelleborgs FF	24	15	6	3	51
2	Atvidabergs FF	24	13	6	5	45
3	Hässleholms IF	24	13	3	8	42
4	Lund	24	11	8	5	41
5	AFC Malmo	24	10	8	6	38
6	Rosengård	24	10	8	6	38
7	Trollhättan	24	10	7	7	37
8	Jonkopings Sodra	24	9	6	9	33
9	Tvååker	24	9	6	9	33
10	Olympic	24	9	3	12	30
11	Skövde AIK	24	7	9	8	30
12	Eskilsminne	24	8	5	11	29
13	Kristianstad	24	7	6	11	27
14	Laholm	24	6	4	14	22
15	Angelholms FF	24	3	9	12	18
16	Utsikten	24	2	6	16	12

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	trelleborgs FF	24	53	28	+25	51
2	Atvidabergs FF	24	48	34	+14	45
3	Lund	24	46	28	+18	41
4	Hässleholms IF	24	44	29	+15	42
5	AFC Malmo	24	44	35	+9	38
6	Rosengård	24	41	34	+7	38
7	Trollhättan	24	41	36	+5	37
8	Olympic	24	41	46	-5	30
9	Eskilsminne	24	39	44	-5	29
10	Tvååker	24	32	37	-5	33
11	Laholm	24	31	43	-12	22
12	Jonkopings Sodra	24	29	25	+4	33
13	Kristianstad	24	29	36	-7	27
14	Skövde AIK	24	28	36	-8	30
15	Angelholms FF	24	28	47	-19	18
16	Utsikten	24	21	57	-36	12