Statistics / Football / Sweden. Ettan - Södra / AFC Malmo vs Utsikten

AFC Malmo vs Utsikten Statistics & Analysis

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AFC Malmo
Sep 19, 2026 - 14:00
3 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 58%
Utsikten Utsikten
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 AFC Malmo AFC Malmo ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8679399

Closing Odds 1.24
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result AFC Malmo win · AFC Malmo 3–1 Utsikten
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.9 percentage points on AFC Malmo (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE5.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Utsikten (1X2) by about 23.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
AFC Malmo (1X2) 36.1 74.5 -38.5
Draw (1X2) 29.7 14.7 +15.0
Utsikten (1X2) 34.2 10.8 +23.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.2% on Utsikten (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 10.8%. The difference — about 23.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
AFC Malmo (1X2) 1.24 1.24 +0.9
Draw (1X2) 6.01 6.3 -0.5
Utsikten (1X2) 8.18 8.57 -0.4

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours AFC Malmo; market prices AFC Malmo instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: AFC Malmo 1.32 xG vs Utsikten 1.28 → AFC Malmo 36.1%
  • Market: AFC Malmo ~74.5% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Ettan - Södra Ettan - Södra — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 trelleborgs FF 23 14 6 3 48
2 Atvidabergs FF 24 13 6 5 45
3 Hässleholms IF 24 13 3 8 42
4 Lund 24 11 8 5 41
5 Rosengård 24 10 8 6 38
6 Trollhättan 24 10 7 7 37
7 AFC Malmo 23 9 8 6 35
8 Jonkopings Sodra 24 9 6 9 33
9 Tvååker 24 9 6 9 33
10 Olympic 24 9 3 12 30
11 Skövde AIK 24 7 9 8 30
12 Eskilsminne 23 8 5 10 29
13 Kristianstad 24 7 6 11 27
14 Laholm 24 6 4 14 22
15 Angelholms FF 23 3 9 11 18
16 Utsikten 24 2 6 16 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 trelleborgs FF 23 49 27 +22 48
2 Atvidabergs FF 24 48 34 +14 45
3 Lund 24 46 28 +18 41
4 Hässleholms IF 24 44 29 +15 42
5 AFC Malmo 23 42 34 +8 35
6 Rosengård 24 41 34 +7 38
7 Trollhättan 24 41 36 +5 37
8 Olympic 24 41 46 -5 30
9 Eskilsminne 23 38 42 -4 29
10 Tvååker 24 32 37 -5 33
11 Laholm 24 31 43 -12 22
12 Jonkopings Sodra 24 29 25 +4 33
13 Kristianstad 24 29 36 -7 27
14 Skövde AIK 24 28 36 -8 30
15 Angelholms FF 23 27 43 -16 18
16 Utsikten 24 21 57 -36 12
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