Statistics / Football / Finland. Ykkösliiga / Haka vs Klubi-04

Haka vs Klubi-04 Statistics & Analysis

Haka Haka
Sep 18, 2026 - 15:30
2 1.27
0 1.33
xG Accuracy: 57%
Klubi-04 Klubi-04
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Klubi-04 Haka ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 12, 2026 · 01:31 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8202685

Closing Odds 1.48
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Haka win · Haka 2–0 Klubi-04
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Klubi-04 (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Klubi-04 (1X2) by about 19.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Haka (1X2) 33.8 64.0 -30.3
Draw (1X2) 29.6 19.2 +10.4
Klubi-04 (1X2) 36.6 16.8 +19.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 67.2 -19.0
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 32.8 +19.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 36.6% on Klubi-04 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 16.8%. The difference — about 19.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Haka (1X2) 1.48 1.48 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.93 4.93 0.0
Klubi-04 (1X2) 5.65 5.65 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.41 1.41 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.89 2.89 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Klubi-04; market prices Haka instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Haka 1.27 xG vs Klubi-04 1.33 → Klubi-04 36.6%
  • Market: Haka ~16.8% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Ykkösliiga Ykkösliiga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kooteepee 25 18 4 3 58
2 PK-35 24 14 6 4 48
3 Haka 25 13 5 7 44
4 JIPPO 24 11 7 6 40
5 JäPS 24 11 2 11 35
6 MP 25 8 5 12 29
7 EIF 24 8 4 12 28
8 KäPa 25 6 6 13 24
9 Klubi-04 24 4 8 12 20
10 SJK Akatemia 24 2 7 15 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Haka 25 47 29 +18 44
2 Kooteepee 25 45 22 +23 58
3 PK-35 24 41 18 +23 48
4 JIPPO 24 32 21 +11 40
5 KäPa 25 30 45 -15 24
6 EIF 24 28 36 -8 28
7 Klubi-04 24 28 36 -8 20
8 MP 25 27 35 -8 29
9 JäPS 24 22 34 -12 35
10 SJK Akatemia 24 16 40 -24 13