Statistics / Football / Finland. Ykkösliiga / PK-35 vs Klubi-04

PK-35 vs Klubi-04 Statistics & Analysis

PK-35 PK-35
Aug 15, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.33
1 1.27
xG Accuracy: 85%
Klubi-04 Klubi-04
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 PK-35 Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 02:30 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3357363

Closing Odds 1.77
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · PK-35 1–1 Klubi-04
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Klubi-04 (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Klubi-04 (1X2) by about 12.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
PK-35 (1X2) 36.6 53.6 -17.1
Draw (1X2) 29.6 25.4 +4.3
Klubi-04 (1X2) 33.8 21.0 +12.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 52.7 -4.5
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 47.3 +4.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 33.8% on Klubi-04 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 21.0%. The difference — about 12.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
PK-35 (1X2) 1.77 1.77 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.74 3.74 0.0
Klubi-04 (1X2) 4.53 4.53 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.82 1.82 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.03 2.03 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ykkösliiga
  • Fixture: PK-35 vs Klubi-04
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): PK-35 1.33 — Klubi-04 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Ykkösliiga Ykkösliiga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kooteepee 23 17 3 3 54
2 PK-35 23 14 6 3 48
3 Haka 23 12 5 6 41
4 JIPPO 23 11 7 5 40
5 JäPS 23 10 2 11 32
6 EIF 23 8 4 11 28
7 MP 23 7 4 12 25
8 Klubi-04 23 4 8 11 20
9 KäPa 23 4 6 13 18
10 SJK Akatemia 23 2 7 14 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Haka 23 43 26 +17 41
2 PK-35 23 41 15 +26 48
3 Kooteepee 23 41 21 +20 54
4 JIPPO 23 32 20 +12 40
5 Klubi-04 23 28 34 -6 20
6 EIF 23 28 35 -7 28
7 MP 23 25 34 -9 25
8 KäPa 23 24 41 -17 18
9 JäPS 23 21 34 -13 32
10 SJK Akatemia 23 14 37 -23 13
Ykkösliiga Finland. Ykkösliiga Predictions