MP vs Klubi-04 Statistics & Analysis

Jun 14, 2026 - 15:30

2 1.24

2 1.36

xG Accuracy: 68%

Klubi-04

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Klubi-04 Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 17:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3063268

Closing Odds 2.26

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · MP 2–2 Klubi-04

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Klubi-04 (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Klubi-04 (1X2) by about 8.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
MP (1X2)	32.4	42.1	-9.7
Draw (1X2)	29.6	28.3	+1.3
Klubi-04 (1X2)	38.0	29.6	+8.5
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	52.1	-3.9
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	47.9	+3.9

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 38.0% on Klubi-04 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 29.6%. The difference — about 8.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
MP (1X2)	2.26	2.26
Draw (1X2)	3.36	3.36
Klubi-04 (1X2)	3.22	3.22
Over 2.5 goals	1.84	1.84
Under 2.5 goals	2.0	2.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Ykkösliiga
Fixture: MP vs Klubi-04
Kickoff: 2026-06-14 15:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
xG (showing): MP 1.24 — Klubi-04 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 47.3% · Probability edge: +4.5 pts · Est. EV: +4.6%
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Ykkösliiga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Kooteepee	23	17	3	3	54
2	PK-35	23	14	6	3	48
3	Haka	23	12	5	6	41
4	JIPPO	23	11	7	5	40
5	JäPS	23	10	2	11	32
6	EIF	23	8	4	11	28
7	MP	23	7	4	12	25
8	Klubi-04	23	4	8	11	20
9	KäPa	23	4	6	13	18
10	SJK Akatemia	23	2	7	14	13

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Haka	23	43	26	+17	41
2	PK-35	23	41	15	+26	48
3	Kooteepee	23	41	21	+20	54
4	JIPPO	23	32	20	+12	40
5	Klubi-04	23	28	34	-6	20
6	EIF	23	28	35	-7	28
7	MP	23	25	34	-9	25
8	KäPa	23	24	41	-17	18
9	JäPS	23	21	34	-13	32
10	SJK Akatemia	23	14	37	-23	13