Statistics / Football / Sweden. Elitettan / Gamla Upsala W vs Alingsås W

Gamla Upsala W vs Alingsås W Statistics & Analysis

Gamla Upsala W Gamla Upsala W
Sep 20, 2026 - 11:00
1 1.13
1 1.47
xG Accuracy: 85%
Alingsås W Alingsås W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Alingsås W Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8662492

Closing Odds 2.84
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Gamla Upsala W 1–1 Alingsås W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Alingsås W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 5.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Gamla Upsala W (1X2) 27.5 31.3 -3.8
Draw (1X2) 29.2 27.5 +1.7
Alingsås W (1X2) 43.3 41.2 +2.1
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 53.5 -5.3
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 46.5 +5.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 46.5%. The difference — about 5.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Gamla Upsala W (1X2) 2.84 2.84 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.24 3.24 0.0
Alingsås W (1X2) 2.16 2.16 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.72 1.72 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.98 1.98 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Elitettan
  • Fixture: Gamla Upsala W vs Alingsås W
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 27.5% · Draw 29.2% · Away 43.3%
  • xG (showing): Gamla Upsala W 1.13 — Alingsås W 1.47 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 46.6% · Probability edge: +5.2 pts · Est. EV: +6.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Elitettan Elitettan — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Elfsborg 20 13 6 1 45
2 KIF Örebro 20 14 2 4 44
3 Göteborg 20 12 6 2 42
4 Linköping 20 13 3 4 42
5 Umeå 20 10 4 6 34
6 Trelleborg W 20 9 5 6 32
7 Husqvarna W 20 8 4 8 28
8 Jitex W 20 6 6 8 24
9 Örebro Söder W 20 6 5 9 23
10 Alingsås W 20 4 7 9 19
11 Enskede W 20 5 4 11 19
12 Gamla Upsala W 20 4 5 11 17
13 Sandviken W 20 2 5 13 11
14 Häcken II 20 2 2 16 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Göteborg 20 50 23 +27 42
2 KIF Örebro 20 43 25 +18 44
3 Linköping 20 38 26 +12 42
4 Elfsborg 20 37 10 +27 45
5 Umeå 20 35 24 +11 34
6 Trelleborg W 20 28 27 +1 32
7 Husqvarna W 20 28 30 -2 28
8 Enskede W 20 27 38 -11 19
9 Jitex W 20 26 29 -3 24
10 Örebro Söder W 20 23 30 -7 23
11 Gamla Upsala W 20 21 33 -12 17
12 Häcken II 20 20 42 -22 8
13 Sandviken W 20 20 49 -29 11
14 Alingsås W 20 17 27 -10 19
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