Statistics / Football / Sweden. Elitettan / KIF Örebro vs Häcken II

KIF Örebro vs Häcken II Statistics & Analysis

KIF Örebro KIF Örebro
Jun 14, 2026 - 14:00
3 1.43
0 1.17
xG Accuracy: 47%
Häcken II Häcken II
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 KIF Örebro KIF Örebro ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 04:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3630138

Closing Odds 1.13
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result KIF Örebro win · KIF Örebro 3–0 Häcken II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.68 percentage points on KIF Örebro (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Häcken II (1X2) by about 14.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
KIF Örebro (1X2) 54.0 81.4 -27.4
Draw (1X2) 24.9 11.9 +13.0
Häcken II (1X2) 21.1 6.6 +14.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 21.1% on Häcken II (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 6.6%. The difference — about 14.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
KIF Örebro (1X2) 1.12 1.13 +1.7
Draw (1X2) 7.03 7.71 -0.8
Häcken II (1X2) 11.85 13.87 -0.9

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Elitettan
  • Fixture: KIF Örebro vs Häcken II
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-14 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 54.0% · Draw 24.9% · Away 21.1%
  • xG (showing): KIF Örebro 1.43 — Häcken II 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Elitettan Elitettan — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Göteborg 18 12 5 1 41
2 Elfsborg 18 12 5 1 41
3 Linköping 18 12 3 3 39
4 KIF Örebro 18 12 2 4 38
5 Umeå 18 8 4 6 28
6 Husqvarna W 18 7 4 7 25
7 Trelleborg W 17 7 4 6 25
8 Örebro Söder W 17 5 5 7 20
9 Jitex W 18 5 5 8 20
10 Enskede W 18 5 4 9 19
11 Alingsås W 18 4 6 8 18
12 Gamla Upsala W 17 3 4 10 13
13 Sandviken W 17 2 4 11 10
14 Häcken II 18 2 1 15 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Göteborg 18 48 17 +31 41
2 Linköping 18 36 23 +13 39
3 KIF Örebro 18 36 23 +13 38
4 Elfsborg 18 35 9 +26 41
5 Umeå 18 28 22 +6 28
6 Husqvarna W 18 26 28 -2 25
7 Trelleborg W 17 25 27 -2 25
8 Enskede W 18 25 31 -6 19
9 Örebro Söder W 17 20 25 -5 20
10 Jitex W 18 20 26 -6 20
11 Gamla Upsala W 17 19 31 -12 13
12 Sandviken W 17 19 46 -27 10
13 Häcken II 18 18 38 -20 7
14 Alingsås W 18 16 25 -9 18
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