Sacachispas vs Estrella Del Sur Statistics & Analysis

Sacachispas

Oct 04, 2026 - 18:00

0 1.31

0 1.29

xG Accuracy: 49%

Estrella Del Sur

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Sacachispas Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11261896

Closing Odds 1.78

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Sacachispas 0–0 Estrella Del Sur

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Estrella Del Sur (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 14.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Sacachispas (1X2)	35.6	49.8	-14.2
Draw (1X2)	29.7	27.3	+2.4
Estrella Del Sur (1X2)	34.7	22.9	+11.9
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	33.6	+14.6
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	66.4	-14.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 33.6%. The difference — about 14.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Sacachispas (1X2)	1.78	1.78
Draw (1X2)	3.25	3.25
Estrella Del Sur (1X2)	3.88	3.88
Over 2.5 goals	2.71	2.71
Under 2.5 goals	1.37	1.37

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Primera C
Fixture: Sacachispas vs Estrella Del Sur
Kickoff: 2026-10-04 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
xG (showing): Sacachispas 1.31 — Estrella Del Sur 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.5% · Implied: 37.6% · Probability edge: +16.9 pts · Est. EV: +42.8%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Sacachispas & Estrella Del Sur!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics

Primera C — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Berazategui	31	12	12	7	48
2	Lugano	30	11	13	6	46
3	Sacachispas	30	13	7	10	46
4	Juventud Unida	31	12	9	10	45
5	Centro Español	30	11	11	8	44
6	Victoriano Arenas	31	10	14	7	44
7	Estrella Del Sur	30	11	11	8	44
8	Mercedes	30	11	10	9	43
9	Puerto Nuevo	30	9	11	10	38
10	Defensores de Cambaceres	31	9	9	13	36
11	Deportivo Paraguayo	30	7	10	13	31
12	Leandro N. Alem	30	8	7	15	31
13	JJ Urquiza	30	5	14	11	29
14	Argentino Rosario	30	3	15	12	24

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Juventud Unida	31	38	31	+7	45
2	Berazategui	31	37	24	+13	48
3	Centro Español	30	37	27	+10	44
4	Lugano	30	33	25	+8	46
5	Sacachispas	30	32	26	+6	46
6	Estrella Del Sur	30	31	29	+2	44
7	Mercedes	30	29	23	+6	43
8	Leandro N. Alem	30	29	51	-22	31
9	Puerto Nuevo	30	27	31	-4	38
10	Argentino Rosario	30	27	39	-12	24
11	Defensores de Cambaceres	31	25	31	-6	36
12	Victoriano Arenas	31	24	19	+5	44
13	Deportivo Paraguayo	30	22	38	-16	31
14	JJ Urquiza	30	15	25	-10	29