Leandro N. Alem vs Centro Español Statistics & Analysis

Leandro N. Alem

Oct 06, 2026 - 17:00

1 1.33

5 1.27

xG Accuracy: 33%

Centro Español

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Leandro N. Alem Centro Español ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-5 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11261812

Closing Odds 1.64

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Centro Español win · Leandro N. Alem 1–5 Centro Español

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE10 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Leandro N. Alem (1X2), Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Leandro N. Alem (1X2) by about 16.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Leandro N. Alem (1X2)	36.6	20.5	+16.1
Draw (1X2)	29.6	23.1	+6.5
Centro Español (1X2)	33.8	56.4	-22.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 36.6% on Leandro N. Alem (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 20.5%. The difference — about 16.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE1 · Book: draftkings

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE10)	Closing (PRE1)
Leandro N. Alem (1X2)	4.5	4.5
Draw (1X2)	4.0	4.0
Centro Español (1X2)	1.64	1.64

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Primera C
Fixture: Leandro N. Alem vs Centro Español
Kickoff: 2026-10-03 20:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
xG (showing): Leandro N. Alem 1.33 — Centro Español 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.5% · Implied: 45.6% · Probability edge: +8.9 pts · Est. EV: +11.2%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Primera C — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Berazategui	31	12	12	7	48
2	Sacachispas	31	13	8	10	47
3	Lugano	31	11	13	7	46
4	Juventud Unida	31	12	9	10	45
5	Estrella Del Sur	31	11	12	8	45
6	Centro Español	30	11	11	8	44
7	Mercedes	31	11	11	9	44
8	Victoriano Arenas	31	10	14	7	44
9	Puerto Nuevo	31	9	11	11	38
10	Defensores de Cambaceres	31	9	9	13	36
11	JJ Urquiza	31	6	14	11	32
12	Deportivo Paraguayo	31	7	11	13	32
13	Leandro N. Alem	30	8	7	15	31
14	Argentino Rosario	31	4	15	12	27

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Juventud Unida	31	38	31	+7	45
2	Berazategui	31	37	24	+13	48
3	Centro Español	30	37	27	+10	44
4	Lugano	31	35	28	+7	46
5	Sacachispas	31	32	26	+6	47
6	Estrella Del Sur	31	31	29	+2	45
7	Mercedes	31	30	24	+6	44
8	Argentino Rosario	31	30	41	-11	27
9	Leandro N. Alem	30	29	51	-22	31
10	Puerto Nuevo	31	28	35	-7	38
11	Defensores de Cambaceres	31	25	31	-6	36
12	Victoriano Arenas	31	24	19	+5	44
13	Deportivo Paraguayo	31	23	39	-16	32
14	JJ Urquiza	31	19	26	-7	32