Statistics / Football / Argentina. Primera C / Claypole vs Deportivo Español

Claypole vs Deportivo Español Statistics & Analysis

Claypole Claypole
Oct 06, 2026 - 17:00
1 1.33
1 1.27
xG Accuracy: 85%
Deportivo Español Deportivo Español
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Claypole Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11261613

Closing Odds 2.95
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Claypole 1–1 Deportivo Español
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE10 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Claypole (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Claypole (1X2) by about 5.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Claypole (1X2) 36.6 31.4 +5.2
Draw (1X2) 29.6 33.0 -3.4
Deportivo Español (1X2) 33.8 35.6 -1.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 36.6% on Claypole (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 31.4%. The difference — about 5.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE1 · Book: draftkings

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE10) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Claypole (1X2) 2.95 2.95 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.8 2.8 0.0
Deportivo Español (1X2) 2.6 2.6 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera C
  • Fixture: Claypole vs Deportivo Español
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 20:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Claypole 1.33 — Deportivo Español 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 31.6% · Probability edge: +16.6 pts · Est. EV: +44.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Primera C Primera C — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Berazategui 31 12 12 7 48
2 Sacachispas 31 13 8 10 47
3 Lugano 31 11 13 7 46
4 Juventud Unida 31 12 9 10 45
5 Estrella Del Sur 31 11 12 8 45
6 Centro Español 30 11 11 8 44
7 Mercedes 31 11 11 9 44
8 Victoriano Arenas 31 10 14 7 44
9 Puerto Nuevo 31 9 11 11 38
10 Defensores de Cambaceres 31 9 9 13 36
11 JJ Urquiza 31 6 14 11 32
12 Deportivo Paraguayo 31 7 11 13 32
13 Leandro N. Alem 30 8 7 15 31
14 Argentino Rosario 31 4 15 12 27
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Juventud Unida 31 38 31 +7 45
2 Berazategui 31 37 24 +13 48
3 Centro Español 30 37 27 +10 44
4 Lugano 31 35 28 +7 46
5 Sacachispas 31 32 26 +6 47
6 Estrella Del Sur 31 31 29 +2 45
7 Mercedes 31 30 24 +6 44
8 Argentino Rosario 31 30 41 -11 27
9 Leandro N. Alem 30 29 51 -22 31
10 Puerto Nuevo 31 28 35 -7 38
11 Defensores de Cambaceres 31 25 31 -6 36
12 Victoriano Arenas 31 24 19 +5 44
13 Deportivo Paraguayo 31 23 39 -16 32
14 JJ Urquiza 31 19 26 -7 32
Primera C Argentina. Primera C Predictions