Statistics / Football / Argentina. Primera C / Central Ballester vs Deportivo Muñiz

Central Ballester vs Deportivo Muñiz Statistics & Analysis

Central Ballester Central Ballester
Oct 06, 2026 - 17:00
1 1.34
2 1.26
xG Accuracy: 74%
Deportivo Muñiz Deportivo Muñiz
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Central Ballester Deportivo Muñiz ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11261550

Closing Odds 1.44
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Deportivo Muñiz win · Central Ballester 1–2 Deportivo Muñiz
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE10 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Deportivo Muñiz (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Deportivo Muñiz (1X2) by about 17.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Central Ballester (1X2) 37.0 64.5 -27.4
Draw (1X2) 29.6 19.4 +10.2
Deportivo Muñiz (1X2) 33.4 16.1 +17.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 33.4% on Deportivo Muñiz (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 16.1%. The difference — about 17.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE1 · Book: draftkings

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE10) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Central Ballester (1X2) 1.44 1.44 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.8 4.8 0.0
Deportivo Muñiz (1X2) 5.75 5.75 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Primera C
  • Fixture: Central Ballester vs Deportivo Muñiz
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 20:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Central Ballester 1.34 — Deportivo Muñiz 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Primera C Primera C — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Berazategui 31 12 12 7 48
2 Sacachispas 31 13 8 10 47
3 Lugano 31 11 13 7 46
4 Juventud Unida 31 12 9 10 45
5 Estrella Del Sur 31 11 12 8 45
6 Centro Español 30 11 11 8 44
7 Mercedes 31 11 11 9 44
8 Victoriano Arenas 31 10 14 7 44
9 Puerto Nuevo 31 9 11 11 38
10 Defensores de Cambaceres 31 9 9 13 36
11 JJ Urquiza 31 6 14 11 32
12 Deportivo Paraguayo 31 7 11 13 32
13 Leandro N. Alem 30 8 7 15 31
14 Argentino Rosario 31 4 15 12 27
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Juventud Unida 31 38 31 +7 45
2 Berazategui 31 37 24 +13 48
3 Centro Español 30 37 27 +10 44
4 Lugano 31 35 28 +7 46
5 Sacachispas 31 32 26 +6 47
6 Estrella Del Sur 31 31 29 +2 45
7 Mercedes 31 30 24 +6 44
8 Argentino Rosario 31 30 41 -11 27
9 Leandro N. Alem 30 29 51 -22 31
10 Puerto Nuevo 31 28 35 -7 38
11 Defensores de Cambaceres 31 25 31 -6 36
12 Victoriano Arenas 31 24 19 +5 44
13 Deportivo Paraguayo 31 23 39 -16 32
14 JJ Urquiza 31 19 26 -7 32
Primera C Argentina. Primera C Predictions