Statistics / Football / Argentina. Primera C / Claypole vs Yupanqui

Claypole vs Yupanqui Statistics & Analysis

Claypole Claypole
Sep 21, 2026 - 18:00
2 1.44
1 1.16
xG Accuracy: 82%
Yupanqui Yupanqui
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Claypole Claypole ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 03:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8709292

Closing Odds 4.14
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Claypole win · Claypole 2–1 Yupanqui
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Yupanqui (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 11.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Claypole (1X2) 41.9 48.0 -6.2
Draw (1X2) 29.3 30.5 -1.2
Yupanqui (1X2) 28.8 21.5 +7.4
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 37.0 +11.2
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 63.0 -11.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 37.0%. The difference — about 11.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Claypole (1X2) 1.85 1.85 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.91 2.91 0.0
Yupanqui (1X2) 4.14 4.14 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.47 2.47 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.45 1.45 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Primera C
  • Fixture: Claypole vs Yupanqui
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-21 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · Away 28.8%
  • xG (showing): Claypole 1.44 — Yupanqui 1.16 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.0% · Implied: 42.4% · Probability edge: +11.6 pts · Est. EV: +21.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Primera C Primera C — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Berazategui 30 12 12 6 48
2 Lugano 30 11 13 6 46
3 Sacachispas 30 13 7 10 46
4 Estrella Del Sur 30 11 11 8 44
5 Mercedes 30 11 10 9 43
6 Juventud Unida 30 11 9 10 42
7 Centro Español 29 10 11 8 41
8 Victoriano Arenas 30 9 14 7 41
9 Puerto Nuevo 30 9 11 10 38
10 Defensores de Cambaceres 29 9 9 11 36
11 Deportivo Paraguayo 30 7 10 13 31
12 JJ Urquiza 29 5 14 10 29
13 Leandro N. Alem 29 7 7 15 28
14 Argentino Rosario 30 3 15 12 24
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Berazategui 30 35 21 +14 48
2 Centro Español 29 35 27 +8 41
3 Juventud Unida 30 35 29 +6 42
4 Lugano 30 33 25 +8 46
5 Sacachispas 30 32 26 +6 46
6 Estrella Del Sur 30 31 29 +2 44
7 Mercedes 30 29 23 +6 43
8 Puerto Nuevo 30 27 31 -4 38
9 Argentino Rosario 30 27 39 -12 24
10 Leandro N. Alem 29 27 50 -23 28
11 Defensores de Cambaceres 29 25 28 -3 36
12 Victoriano Arenas 30 23 19 +4 41
13 Deportivo Paraguayo 30 22 38 -16 31
14 JJ Urquiza 29 14 23 -9 29
Primera C Argentina. Primera C Predictions