Claypole vs Sacachispas Statistics & Analysis

Claypole

Sep 15, 2026 - 18:00

2 1.39

0 1.21

xG Accuracy: 61%

Sacachispas

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Claypole Claypole ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 03:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7469843

Closing Odds 3.75

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Claypole win · Claypole 2–0 Sacachispas

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Claypole (1X2), Over 2.5 goals, BTTS Yes meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on BTTS Yes by about 16.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Claypole (1X2)	39.5	23.9	+15.6
Draw (1X2)	29.5	31.2	-1.7
Sacachispas (1X2)	31.0	44.9	-13.9
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	35.5	+12.7
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	64.5	-12.7
BTTS Yes	54.3	37.5	+16.8
BTTS No	45.7	62.5	-16.8

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 54.3% on BTTS Yes, while the closing snapshot implied about 37.5%. The difference — about 16.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Claypole (1X2)	3.75	3.75
Draw (1X2)	2.88	2.88
Sacachispas (1X2)	2.0	2.0
Over 2.5 goals	2.62	2.62
Under 2.5 goals	1.44	1.44
BTTS Yes	2.5	2.5
BTTS No	1.5	1.5

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Primera C
Fixture: Claypole vs Sacachispas
Kickoff: 2026-09-15 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
xG (showing): Claypole 1.39 — Sacachispas 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.3% · Implied: 41.3% · Probability edge: +13.0 pts · Est. EV: +35.8%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera C — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Berazategui	30	12	12	6	48
2	Lugano	30	11	13	6	46
3	Sacachispas	30	13	7	10	46
4	Estrella Del Sur	30	11	11	8	44
5	Mercedes	30	11	10	9	43
6	Juventud Unida	30	11	9	10	42
7	Centro Español	29	10	11	8	41
8	Victoriano Arenas	30	9	14	7	41
9	Puerto Nuevo	30	9	11	10	38
10	Defensores de Cambaceres	29	9	9	11	36
11	Deportivo Paraguayo	30	7	10	13	31
12	JJ Urquiza	29	5	14	10	29
13	Leandro N. Alem	29	7	7	15	28
14	Argentino Rosario	30	3	15	12	24

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Berazategui	30	35	21	+14	48
2	Centro Español	29	35	27	+8	41
3	Juventud Unida	30	35	29	+6	42
4	Lugano	30	33	25	+8	46
5	Sacachispas	30	32	26	+6	46
6	Estrella Del Sur	30	31	29	+2	44
7	Mercedes	30	29	23	+6	43
8	Puerto Nuevo	30	27	31	-4	38
9	Argentino Rosario	30	27	39	-12	24
10	Leandro N. Alem	29	27	50	-23	28
11	Defensores de Cambaceres	29	25	28	-3	36
12	Victoriano Arenas	30	23	19	+4	41
13	Deportivo Paraguayo	30	22	38	-16	31
14	JJ Urquiza	29	14	23	-9	29