UAI Urquiza vs Ituzaingó Statistics & Analysis

UAI Urquiza

Oct 05, 2026 - 18:00

3 1.26

2 1.34

xG Accuracy: 52%

Ituzaingó

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Ituzaingó UAI Urquiza ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11261495

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result UAI Urquiza win · UAI Urquiza 3–2 Ituzaingó

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Primera B Metropolitana
Fixture: UAI Urquiza vs Ituzaingó
Kickoff: 2026-10-05 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
xG (showing): UAI Urquiza 1.26 — Ituzaingó 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.5% · Implied: 42.2% · Probability edge: +12.3 pts · Est. EV: +20.4%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Primera B Metropolitana — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Excursionistas	39	23	8	8	77
2	Arsenal Sarandi	39	20	12	7	72
3	Talleres Remedios	39	19	11	9	68
4	Sportivo Italiano	38	18	11	9	65
5	Villa Dalmine	39	17	14	8	65
6	Deportivo Camioneros	39	17	13	9	64
7	Deportivo Armenio	39	17	10	12	61
8	Real Pilar	38	17	10	11	61
9	Comunicaciones	39	14	14	11	56
10	Deportivo Laferrere	39	13	13	13	52
11	San Martín Burzaco	39	12	14	13	50
12	Dock Sud	38	11	14	13	47
13	Villa San Carlos	39	11	14	14	47
14	Deportivo Merlo	39	10	15	14	45
15	Argentino de Merlo	38	11	11	16	44
16	Argentino Quilmes	39	9	17	13	44
17	Liniers	39	10	14	15	44
18	Flandria	39	11	9	19	42
19	Defensores Unidos	39	9	14	16	41
20	Brown DE Adrogue	38	8	15	15	39
21	UAI Urquiza	38	5	20	13	35
22	Ituzaingó	39	1	13	25	16

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Excursionistas	39	63	30	+33	77
2	Arsenal Sarandi	39	53	26	+27	72
3	Deportivo Laferrere	39	47	51	-4	52
4	Sportivo Italiano	38	45	28	+17	65
5	Deportivo Camioneros	39	44	30	+14	64
6	Deportivo Armenio	39	42	38	+4	61
7	Real Pilar	38	42	38	+4	61
8	Talleres Remedios	39	41	24	+17	68
9	Dock Sud	38	40	42	-2	47
10	San Martín Burzaco	39	40	44	-4	50
11	Villa Dalmine	39	39	24	+15	65
12	Comunicaciones	39	39	34	+5	56
13	Villa San Carlos	39	37	43	-6	47
14	Deportivo Merlo	39	37	52	-15	45
15	Flandria	39	35	48	-13	42
16	Argentino de Merlo	38	33	39	-6	44
17	Defensores Unidos	39	33	40	-7	41
18	Argentino Quilmes	39	32	39	-7	44
19	Liniers	39	32	40	-8	44
20	Ituzaingó	39	27	64	-37	16
21	Brown DE Adrogue	38	24	37	-13	39
22	UAI Urquiza	38	21	35	-14	35