Defensores Unidos vs Argentino Quilmes Statistics & Analysis

Defensores Unidos

Oct 03, 2026 - 18:00

1 1.36

1 1.24

xG Accuracy: 85%

Argentino Quilmes

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Defensores Unidos Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11261231

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Defensores Unidos 1–1 Argentino Quilmes

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Primera B Metropolitana
Fixture: Defensores Unidos vs Argentino Quilmes
Kickoff: 2026-10-03 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
xG (showing): Defensores Unidos 1.36 — Argentino Quilmes 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.4% · Implied: 41.7% · Probability edge: +12.7 pts · Est. EV: +29.5%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 07, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Primera B Metropolitana — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Excursionistas	38	22	8	8	74
2	Arsenal Sarandi	38	19	12	7	69
3	Talleres Remedios	37	19	10	8	67
4	Villa Dalmine	38	17	13	8	64
5	Deportivo Camioneros	38	17	12	9	63
6	Sportivo Italiano	37	17	11	9	62
7	Real Pilar	38	17	10	11	61
8	Deportivo Armenio	38	17	9	12	60
9	Comunicaciones	37	14	12	11	54
10	Deportivo Laferrere	38	13	12	13	51
11	San Martín Burzaco	38	12	14	12	50
12	Dock Sud	38	11	14	13	47
13	Villa San Carlos	38	11	14	13	47
14	Argentino de Merlo	38	11	11	16	44
15	Argentino Quilmes	38	9	16	13	43
16	Liniers	38	10	13	15	43
17	Deportivo Merlo	37	10	13	14	43
18	Defensores Unidos	38	9	14	15	41
19	Brown DE Adrogue	37	8	14	15	38
20	Flandria	37	10	8	19	38
21	UAI Urquiza	37	4	20	13	32
22	Ituzaingó	37	1	12	24	15

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Excursionistas	38	59	30	+29	74
2	Arsenal Sarandi	38	50	25	+25	69
3	Deportivo Laferrere	38	46	50	-4	51
4	Sportivo Italiano	37	43	28	+15	62
5	Deportivo Camioneros	38	43	29	+14	63
6	Real Pilar	38	42	38	+4	61
7	Deportivo Armenio	38	42	38	+4	60
8	Talleres Remedios	37	40	21	+19	67
9	Dock Sud	38	40	42	-2	47
10	San Martín Burzaco	38	39	41	-2	50
11	Villa Dalmine	38	38	23	+15	64
12	Comunicaciones	37	38	33	+5	54
13	Villa San Carlos	38	37	39	-2	47
14	Deportivo Merlo	37	36	51	-15	43
15	Argentino de Merlo	38	33	39	-6	44
16	Defensores Unidos	38	33	39	-6	41
17	Flandria	37	33	47	-14	38
18	Liniers	38	31	39	-8	43
19	Argentino Quilmes	38	30	37	-7	43
20	Brown DE Adrogue	37	24	37	-13	38
21	Ituzaingó	37	23	59	-36	15
22	UAI Urquiza	37	18	33	-15	32