Excursionistas vs Ituzaingó Statistics & Analysis

Excursionistas

Sep 07, 2026 - 23:00

2 1.30

1 1.30

xG Accuracy: 76%

Ituzaingó

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Excursionistas Excursionistas ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 04:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6169514

Closing Odds 1.35

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Excursionistas win · Excursionistas 2–1 Ituzaingó

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Ituzaingó (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Ituzaingó (1X2) by about 24.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Excursionistas (1X2)	35.2	66.9	-31.7
Draw (1X2)	29.6	22.1	+7.5
Ituzaingó (1X2)	35.2	10.9	+24.2
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	43.9	+4.3
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	56.1	-4.3

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 35.2% on Ituzaingó (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 10.9%. The difference — about 24.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Excursionistas (1X2)	1.35	1.35
Draw (1X2)	4.08	4.08
Ituzaingó (1X2)	8.25	8.25
Over 2.5 goals	2.12	2.12
Under 2.5 goals	1.66	1.66

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Excursionistas; market prices Excursionistas instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Excursionistas 1.30 xG vs Ituzaingó 1.30 → Excursionistas 35.2%
Market: Excursionistas ~66.9% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera B Metropolitana — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Excursionistas	37	22	8	7	74
2	Arsenal Sarandi	37	19	12	6	69
3	Talleres Remedios	37	19	10	8	67
4	Villa Dalmine	36	17	12	7	63
5	Deportivo Camioneros	37	17	12	8	63
6	Sportivo Italiano	36	16	11	9	59
7	Real Pilar	37	16	10	11	58
8	Deportivo Armenio	37	16	9	12	57
9	Comunicaciones	36	14	11	11	53
10	Deportivo Laferrere	36	12	12	12	48
11	San Martín Burzaco	37	11	14	12	47
12	Dock Sud	36	10	14	12	44
13	Villa San Carlos	37	10	14	13	44
14	Argentino de Merlo	37	11	11	15	44
15	Deportivo Merlo	37	10	13	14	43
16	Argentino Quilmes	36	9	14	13	41
17	Defensores Unidos	37	9	13	15	40
18	Liniers	37	9	13	15	40
19	Flandria	36	10	8	18	38
20	Brown DE Adrogue	37	8	14	15	38
21	UAI Urquiza	36	4	19	13	31
22	Ituzaingó	37	1	12	24	15

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Excursionistas	37	59	29	+30	74
2	Arsenal Sarandi	37	50	24	+26	69
3	Deportivo Laferrere	36	43	47	-4	48
4	Deportivo Camioneros	37	42	27	+15	63
5	Sportivo Italiano	36	41	27	+14	59
6	Talleres Remedios	37	40	21	+19	67
7	Real Pilar	37	40	38	+2	58
8	Deportivo Armenio	37	39	38	+1	57
9	Villa Dalmine	36	38	21	+17	63
10	Comunicaciones	36	38	33	+5	53
11	Dock Sud	36	38	38	0	44
12	San Martín Burzaco	37	37	40	-3	47
13	Villa San Carlos	37	36	39	-3	44
14	Deportivo Merlo	37	36	51	-15	43
15	Argentino de Merlo	37	32	37	-5	44
16	Defensores Unidos	37	32	38	-6	40
17	Flandria	36	32	45	-13	38
18	Liniers	37	30	39	-9	40
19	Argentino Quilmes	36	29	36	-7	41
20	Brown DE Adrogue	37	24	37	-13	38
21	Ituzaingó	37	23	59	-36	15
22	UAI Urquiza	36	18	33	-15	31