Aurora vs Mictlán Statistics & Analysis

Aurora

Apr 26, 2026 - 21:00

1 1.45

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 82%

Mictlán

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Aurora Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 28, 2026 · 06:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2138046

Closing Odds 3.6

AI Fair Odds 2.39

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Aurora 1–1 Mictlán

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

Expected: 41.8%
Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=3)

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Aurora (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Aurora (1X2) by about 16.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Aurora (1X2)	41.8	25.6	+16.1
Draw (1X2)	25.7	28.3	-2.6
Mictlán (1X2)	32.6	46.1	-13.5
Over 2.5 goals	50.6	45.4	+5.2
Under 2.5 goals	49.4	54.6	-5.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.8% on Aurora (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 25.6%. The difference — about 16.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Aurora (1X2)	3.6	3.6
Draw (1X2)	3.26	3.26
Mictlán (1X2)	2.0	2.0
Over 2.5 goals	2.06	2.06
Under 2.5 goals	1.71	1.71

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Back to Statistics

Liga Nacional — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Xelajú	22	11	6	5	39
2	Municipal	22	11	5	6	38
3	Mixco	22	10	6	6	36
4	Comunicaciones	22	11	2	9	35
5	Antigua GFC	22	9	7	6	34
6	Cobán Imperial	22	8	8	6	32
7	Guastatoya	22	8	7	7	31
8	Marquense	22	9	3	10	30
9	Mictlán	22	7	6	9	27
10	Malacateco	22	6	4	12	22
11	Aurora	22	4	8	10	20
12	Achuapa	22	5	4	13	19

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Xelajú	22	34	19	+15	39
2	Antigua GFC	22	34	29	+5	34
3	Municipal	22	32	21	+11	38
4	Mixco	22	30	26	+4	36
5	Guastatoya	22	29	21	+8	31
6	Cobán Imperial	22	29	22	+7	32
7	Comunicaciones	22	28	26	+2	35
8	Marquense	22	25	29	-4	30
9	Mictlán	22	25	36	-11	27
10	Malacateco	22	19	25	-6	22
11	Achuapa	22	17	32	-15	19
12	Aurora	22	14	30	-16	20